At 12:30 GMT today, the US August jobs report will be released, with the market pricing a rate hike on 16 September at around 50% in futures and 42.5% in the prediction market — down from 67% forty-eight hours ago. We mapped the full decision tree: two dated gates, published analyst-house thresholds on each branch, and live probabilities at every leaf. We then measured two things from our data that previews do not offer: where the thirty-one first prints since 2024 sit on that threshold scale, and whether the session move follows the data surprise at all. The conclusion ahead of the release: a cool jobs report can close the hike branch today, but the 11 September inflation figure — in the committee member’s own words — is what ultimately opens or closes it.
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