EL7 Research · US Economy
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · Ahead of the US jobs report on Friday 6 November
The October jobs report is due on Friday 6 November, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-hiking cycle and markets pricing roughly a 79% probability of another hike in December. We compiled previous figures, leading indicators, forecasts from nine institutions and prediction-market prices, and measured moves in the dollar, gold and S&P 500 across 22 previous reports to build four post-release scenarios.
The expected figure is small; its impact could be large. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS releases the October jobs report on Friday 6 November at 13:30 GMT. Its key figure is Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP: the net number of jobs added by the US economy during the month outside agriculture. Consensus Estimates, the average economist forecast in each survey, range from 55 thousand jobs in the Newsquawk poll to 65 thousand in the Reuters poll, after just 29 thousand in September. The Unemployment Rate, the share of the labour force who are unemployed and seeking work, is expected to hold at 4.2%.
Why is this report different from previous releases? Because the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, is in a rate-hiking cycle rather than a cutting cycle. It raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00% on 16 September; a Basis Point is one hundredth of a percentage point. It then held rates on 28 October by a vote of 10 to 2, with both dissenters calling for another hike. Traders on Kalshi put the probability of a further hike at the 9 December meeting at roughly 79%. The platform operates as a Prediction Market, where contract prices reflect participants' estimates of the probability of a particular event. A strong figure here therefore means an almost certain hike, rather than fewer rate cuts.
What do the leading indicators suggest? A slight bias towards strength. Private-sector companies added 86 thousand jobs in October, according to ADP, exceeding the Reuters poll forecast of 69 thousand. Job Openings, JOLTS, the available positions employers are seeking to fill, rose to 7.523 million in September. Initial Jobless Claims, new applications for unemployment benefits, fell to 195 thousand in the survey week. The gap in The Conference Board survey between those describing jobs as “plentiful” and those seeing them as “hard to get” widened to +5.3 points.
Bank forecasts cluster closely, but forecast errors exceed the expected figure. Forecasts from the nine institutions we reviewed range from 45 thousand at KPMG to 100 thousand at Pantheon, averaging ~64 thousand. Yet the First Print, the initial estimate published on release day, deviated from consensus by an average of 79 thousand jobs in either direction over the last 11 reports. The typical margin of error is therefore larger than the expected figure itself.
What our market record shows. We studied 22 jobs reports since November 2024 using five-minute data. Gold showed the clearest response: in all 7 cases where the figure missed consensus by fifty thousand or more, gold was higher an hour after release. The dollar followed the direction of the surprise with small moves. The S&P 500 barely moved in the first hour, but closed lower on 5 of the 6 days when the figure substantially exceeded expectations, excluding 4 April 2025.
Our four scenarios, weighted using Kalshi prices: a strong reading above 100 thousand (~31%) strengthens the case for a December hike, supporting the dollar and weighing on gold and equities. A reading within expectations, between 40 and 100 thousand (~37%), keeps attention on the inflation report on 10 November. A weak reading between zero and 40 thousand (~22%) lifts gold and weighs on the dollar. A negative reading (~10%) calls a December hike into question. This is analysis, not an investment recommendation.
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