EL7 Research · Bonds
25 September 2026 · official closes through 24 September (UK through 23 September) · futures positions through 22 September
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury closed at 5.47%, and Japan, the UK and Germany recorded levels not seen in fifteen years or more. Yet comparing the four markets on the same basis shows that long-dated yields rose less than short-dated yields in each of them. In the United States, the term premium — the extra yield that rewards an investor for holding a bond for many years — has fallen since mid-August. The selling is not about duration itself, meaning a bond price's sensitivity to interest rates, but about the rate path central banks are pricing.
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