EL7 Research · Energy and Aviation
9 October 2026 · Prices as of the close on 8 October
Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 earnings per share outlook by roughly a quarter, despite reporting record revenue for the September quarter. We traced fuel from the barrel to the share price and found that airlines pay the price of jet fuel, rather than Brent. Jet fuel costs more than 80 dollars per barrel above Brent because of a refining margin that increased roughly three and a half times. We also found that ticket prices covered the increase in the quarterly fuel bill, but the price assumption underpinning July's outlook did not hold, and airline shares now fall in most sessions when oil rises sharply.
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