On Saturday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer. Washington responded by disabling two Iranian tankers and destroying a third, before the Guard announced in the evening that it had attacked six vessels. On Sunday, Iran's parliamentary speaker said that “the era of proportionate responses is over”. This is a measurement exercise, not a narrative: we asked which market actually traded after all this, found one — Riyadh on Sunday — measured 96 stocks there, then compared that session with the March and August sessions following two earlier escalations, and with the week of the first tanker strikes that preceded it in New York. The conclusion is that the market is not pricing missiles; it is pricing vessels that transit.
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