The threat in the Strait of Hormuz shifted in November from detectable missiles and drones to mines in unknown locations, and transits fell over a single weekend from 31 vessels to 5 and then zero. Yet Brent has fallen 19.34% since 30 October. We explain why the market is pricing in a deal that has yet to be signed, the barriers between any deal and tankers’ return, and who actually gained when Gulf barrels were trapped.
What is new this month is the type of attack, not the number. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said at least 12 vessels had caught fire since early November, most after striking naval mines: explosive devices placed in the water that detonate when a vessel approaches or makes contact. Few of these accounts, however, have been independently confirmed. Confirmed incidents include the 29 October attack, when a small boat attached two mines to a tanker’s hull, and the 10 November attack on an ADNOC vessel within UAE territorial waters in the Arabian Gulf.
The strait has not closed; it has become a passage that filters who can transit. UK Maritime Trade Operations, UKMTO recorded 170 outbound transits and 155 inbound transits in the week through 10 November, down roughly 65% from pre-war levels, with most vessels visible on tracking systems taking the Iranian route north of the strait. Iranian accounts link every mine incident to a vessel taking an “unauthorised route”. Meanwhile, Iraqi exports recovered to about 3.5 million barrels a day in October, close to their pre-war level.
Oil prices have also moved ahead of the ships. Brent’s settlement fell from 113.43 dollars a barrel on 30 October to 91.49 dollars on 10 November, its lowest settlement since 31 August, while transits over the 7 and 8 November weekend fell to 5 vessels and then zero. The market is therefore pricing the probability of a deal, not the number of mines.
But a deal alone does not remove a mine. Four barriers remain after signing: deployment of the British- and French-led mine-clearance mission, which will not deploy before a deal; surveying and clearance operations; insurers resuming voyage pricing; and shipowners’ decisions. This means the recovery in physical flows will lag the price response by at least weeks.
Finally, the “winners” from trapped Gulf barrels gained more from prices than from market share. US crude exports reached a record 5,728 thousand barrels a day in May, then fell back to 3,992 thousand in August, roughly their August 2025 level. Since 30 October, Petrobras shares have fallen 17.10% and Equinor shares 16.55% alongside Brent, while Aramco shares have risen 0.69%. So far, the mines have not opened a new opportunity for Atlantic producers to increase market share.
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