Brent crude closed on 9 September at $101.21 per barrel after US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, while spot gold (Spot Gold Price) closed at $4,402 per ounce — 5.5% below its 25 August close — as oil rose 14.3% over the same two weeks. The safe haven (Safe Haven) did not perform its role, and this was not an isolated incident. Using our price database, we measured every day on which Brent rose 3% or more since 2006: across 324 such days between 2006 and 2025, gold gained 0.54% on average and rose on 65% of them; across 39 such days in 2026, it lost 0.52% on average and rose on only 36% of them. The signal has reversed, and the channel that reversed it is measurable: today's oil shock passes through the probability of a rate hike and the two-year yield before reaching gold.
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