EL7 Research · Commodities
6 November 2026 · Closing prices through 5 November, 22:00 GMT
Gold rose 3.31% the day after the US midterm elections, its biggest gain on such a day since 1982, then added 0.69% on a day when the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52%. Across both days, it gained 4.18% during Asian hours and lost 0.15% during London and New York hours, while the money that left gold funds in October has yet to return.
Gold rose 3.31% on 4 November, closing at $4,060.36 an ounce. This came the day after the US midterm elections, the legislative elections held halfway through a presidential term, in which Democrats won both chambers of Congress. This was gold’s biggest day-after-midterm gain across 12 elections since 1982, and more than double the previous largest rise of 1.52% in 1990. In the previous eleven elections, gold fell the following day eight times. It then added 0.69% on 5 November, closing at $4,088.25, on a day when the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.52%. Gold thus rebounded 5.49% from $3,875.65 on 30 October, its lowest close since 2 October 2025.
The clearest feature of EL7’s data is the timing of the rally. We divided each day into two periods: Asian hours, from the New York close to 07:00 GMT, and London and New York hours, from 07:00 to the close. Across 4 and 5 November, gold gained 4.18% during Asian hours and lost 0.15% during London and New York hours. October showed the reverse: gold lost 6.77% over the month, including a 5.43% loss during London and New York hours and a loss of just 1.42% during Asian hours.
Interest rates do not explain the rally on 4 November. A real yield is a Treasury yield after deducting expected inflation. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The ten-year Treasury real yield fell by just one basis point, from 2.65% to 2.64%, while the probability of a US rate increase in December rose from around 76% to around 78% in the prediction market, where contracts on future event outcomes trade at prices reflecting their probabilities. Gold’s rally on 5 November is more clearly explained by interest rate moves: the two-year Treasury yield fell 12 basis points, and the probability of an increase dropped to around 66%.
Other metals and mining equities rose more than gold on 4 November: the SIL silver miners fund gained 9.60%, the GDX gold miners fund 9.01%, silver 4.98% and platinum 4.77%. Speculators had entered the day with their weakest long positions in silver and platinum in months; long positions bet on rising prices. Their short positions in platinum, which bet on falling prices, had been increasing. The money that left gold funds in October has yet to return: GLD holdings remain 15.19 tonnes below their end-September level. Meanwhile, central banks bought 321.2 tonnes in Q3, according to the World Gold Council, up 42% from the same quarter of 2025.
Asian overnight session, 4 November
+2.47%
From the New York close to 07:00 GMT, as House and Senate results were announced
Rise
London and New York daytime, 4 November
+0.82%
Silver, platinum and mining stocks rose more than gold
Rise
Asian overnight session, 5 November
+1.66%
Gold reached its session high of 4,146.85 dollars before London opened
Rise
London and New York daytime, 5 November
−0.96%
The S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.52%
Decline
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