Gasoline-only cars fall below half of global sales for the first time: did higher oil prices really drive the shift?

Gasoline-only cars fell to 49% of global new-car sales in the first half of 2026. The prevailing explanation is that higher oil prices after the war pushed buyers towards electric vehicles. We tested this explanation in Europe, China and the United States. We found that the war accelerated electric vehicle growth in Europe but did not accelerate gasoline's decline, and that financial markets and our factor model agreed that refiners were the biggest winners.

49%

Gasoline-only share of global new-car sales, first half of 2026

22.2%

Gasoline-only share in the European Union, remaining between 21% and 23% each month after the war

−20.0%

Retail passenger car sales in China, with electric vehicles themselves at −13.0%

98.1

EL7 score for Valero, versus 8.0 for NIO and 1.7 for Lucid

This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.

November

Free papers this month · of 4

Renews 1 December

Keep reading for free

Create a free account and read this paper in full

A free account gives you 4 full research papers every month. Or subscribe to EL7 Pro for full access to more than 300 papers.

Create a free account

$700 per year · or $99 per month

...

EL7 Research · Autos and Energy

5 October 2026 · Prices as of the 2 October close