France's 2026 budget was built on a ten-year yield of 3.80% and a three-month rate of 2.25%. Today the yield is 4.45% and the rate is 2.65%, with four months left in the year. One day before Paris announced that its debt cost had been exceeded, the European Central Bank raised rates based on a forecast round whose technical assumptions were closed on 19 August — when Brent crude was at 91.62 dollars. By the decision day it was at 107.63. The assumption was not wrong when made, but it was outdated when used. Two institutions, the same mechanism: both planned around a number overtaken by the shock, and the second raised rates on the first's bill.
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