Most Fed officials favour another hike before year-end: why did the probability of an October hike fall to 17%?

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its 15 and 16 September meeting, which raised rates to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous 12–0 vote. We read the full minutes and compared them phrase by phrase with July's: who raised rates as insurance and who out of necessity, which views gained support and which disappeared, and why markets did not move on release.

17%

Probability of a rate hike on 28 October on the minutes' release day, down from 70.9% on 23 September

84%

Probability of at least one hike by the 9 December meeting

3.0%

Reported core inflation for August, versus the staff estimate of 3.2%

2029

Expected date for inflation to reach 2% in Fed staff forecasts, versus 2028 in July

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EL7 Research · Central Banks

8 October 2026 · Prices as of the 7 October close