Warsh announced his rule and Trump demands its reversal: what will the Federal Reserve do on 16 September?
For the first time in 38 months, the Federal Reserve faces the prospect of raising interest rates. The meeting includes a decision, statement, Dot Plot and press conference, following a day when inflation data showed elevated price pressures, and two weeks after a Jackson Hole speech in which Kevin Warsh said the central bank alone bore responsibility for 65 months of high inflation. This report measures what has changed since the June and July meetings, sets out a detailed forecast for each of the four outputs, and examines — through arithmetic rather than rhetoric — whether the rate cut demanded by the White House serves or harms the US Treasury.
87.5%Probability of a rate hike in prediction markets
3.50–3.75%Current range since December 2025
38months since the last rate hike
9–3July vote — dissenters sought a hike
3.8%Year-end 2026 Dot Plot median
This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.
This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.
This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.
This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.
This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.
This part of the paper is open to EL7 Pro members and to free members who use one of this month's free papers on it. The paper goes on to analyse the numbers, the causes and what they mean for investors, with tables, charts and sources.
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