EL7 Research · Energy and Commodities
6 October 2026 · Prices as of the 5 October close
Gulf crude is back, fuel is not: what changes as the East-West pipeline returns to 5.8 million barrels a day?
Saudi Arabia's energy minister said the East-West pipeline is pumping about 5.8 million barrels a day, while Gulf exports have returned to about 81% of pre-war levels. We broke down the remaining gap by barrel type and found that two-thirds was fuel, not crude, then used EL7's price database to measure what crude prices and diesel margins say about both.
5.8
million barrels a day through the East-West pipeline, out of a capacity of about 7 million
81%
of pre-war Gulf exports returned in September, with crude alone at about 91%
60%
of refined-product and liquefied-gas exports have returned
90.58
dollars per barrel in diesel margin, about 2.7 times its pre-war level
Executive summary
- The East-West pipeline (East-West Pipeline) has returned to pumping about 5.8 million barrels a day, more than 80% of its nameplate capacity (Nameplate Capacity), the maximum volume it was designed to carry, of about 7 million. Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, announced this on 6 October 2026, 25 days after drone attacks halted the pipeline and 14 days after pumping resumed on 22 September. The figure is about three times actual throughput (Throughput) in August, the volume of oil that actually passed through the pipeline before the attack, which Kpler estimated at about 2 million barrels a day.
- Gulf exports have returned to about 81% of pre-war levels, but the recovery is uneven between crude and fuel. According to Vortexa data reported by Reuters, exports from seven Gulf countries of crude and condensate (Condensate), light hydrocarbon liquids treated as very light oil, and refined products (Refined Products), products made by processing crude, such as petrol and diesel, reached 19.2 million barrels a day in September, against 23.6 million before the war. Crude and condensate are at about 91% of their previous levels, while refined products and liquefied petroleum gas (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — LPG), gas turned into liquid under pressure for storage and transport, are at only about 60%.
- Two-thirds of the remaining gap is fuel, not crude. EL7 calculations based on Vortexa figures put the gap at about 4.4 million barrels a day: about 2.9 million in refined products and liquefied petroleum gas, and about 1.5 million in crude and condensate. The East-West pipeline carries only crude, so it addresses the smaller part of the gap.
- Prices tell the same story. Saudi Aramco cut its crude selling prices for Asia for November, with crude supply ample enough to allow this. By contrast, the diesel refining margin in EL7's price database reached about 90.58 dollars per barrel at the 5 October close, about 2.7 times its pre-war average of 33.73 dollars. Brent crude (Brent Crude), the global benchmark for oil pricing, closed at 100.32 dollars, 37.7% above its pre-war level.
- Inventories are the part pipelines cannot restore. The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said on 5 October that the world had lost about 3 billion barrels of supply since the war began, and that rebuilding inventories (Inventories), oil held for later use, could take about two years after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
