EL7 Research · Macroeconomics

9 October 2026 · Probabilities as of 13:00 GMT · Prices as of the 8 October close

October hike odds fell from 68.5% to 15.5%: can September inflation revive them on Wednesday?

The US Consumer Price Index for September is due on Wednesday 14 October, the last inflation report before the Fed's 28 October decision. We separated what petrol has already settled from the question still open, and examined 31 releases since 2024 to measure how often core inflation surprised to the upside and how markets moved in the first five minutes after each surprise.

15.5%

Probability of a rate hike on 28 October on Polymarket, down from 68.5% on 28 September

85.5%

Probability of at least one hike by the December meeting on Kalshi

37.5%

Probability of a core reading of 0.3% or higher on Kalshi

0.53%

Cleveland Fed nowcast for monthly headline inflation, versus consensus of 0.6%

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