A reading the market gave 35% sent gold down 1.55% in an hour: what did September inflation reveal?

US core inflation came in at 0.3% for the second consecutive month, a reading the market assigned a 35.5% probability before release, so it was no shock. Yet gold posted its largest first-hour decline across 30 releases since 2024, and the probability of an October rate increase jumped from 17.5% to 54% in 38 minutes. We measured where each reading fell in the market distribution, what drove core inflation, and why markets moved so sharply.

0.3%

Monthly core inflation versus a 0.2% consensus, for the second consecutive month

35.5%

Probability of a 0.3% reading on Kalshi before release; 0.2% was the most likely reading, at 38%

1.55%

Gold's first-hour decline, the largest across 30 releases since January 2024

38.5%

Probability of a rate increase on 28 October on Polymarket, up from 17.5% before release

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EL7 Research · Macroeconomics

14 October 2026 · Markets as of 15:20 GMT