On Friday 11 September at 12:30 GMT, the US Consumer Price Index for August will be released, the final inflation reading before the rate decision on 16 September and in the heart of the blackout period, when no committee member can guide the market reaction. We collected every institutional forecast published under its author's name and placed it beside the Federal Reserve's own model and what the prediction market is pricing, finding the arbiters agree on one point: the headline will jump to about 0.4% on gasoline, while core will remain at 0.2%. We then measured from our data what bank previews do not provide — how often core surprised to the upside when consensus was 0.2%, and which line bonds and gold actually trade — and used this to form our view on what determines a hike.
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