There is no update to rate projections at the April meeting. The focus will be on whether Powell describes the energy shock as temporary or as a risk extending the holding period.
A detailed reading of what the market expects in rate decisions, statements, press conferences, and the impact of each scenario on the dollar, euro, yen, sterling, bonds, equities, gold and oil.
The base case for this week is unchanged rates at all four meetings, but holding rates is not an entirely reassuring message for markets. The shock from higher energy prices and Middle East tensions has shifted the debate from “when do cuts begin?” to “can central banks ignore a new supply shock without inflation expectations becoming unanchored?”. Therefore, the decision itself will matter less than the language on inflation, wages, price expectations and the exchange rate.
There is no update to rate projections at the April meeting. The focus will be on whether Powell describes the energy shock as temporary or as a risk extending the holding period.
Holding does not mean the end of normalisation. The bank may raise its inflation forecasts in the Outlook Report and leave the door open to a near-term hike in June or July.
April is likely a holding point, while June is the decisive meeting. Lagarde needs to keep the risk of a rate hike alive without pre-commitment.
The next decision is officially confirmed for 30 April 2026. Holding is the most balanced scenario, but cuts have become harder after the energy shock.
| Central bank | Decision date | Expected rate decision | Expected statement tone | Most sensitive asset |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Federal Reserve | 29 Apr 2026 | Hold the range at 3.50%-3.75% | Cautious, leaning hawkish due to inflation and energy | Dollar, two-year yields, Nasdaq |
| Bank of Japan | 28 Apr 2026 | Hold at around 0.75% with risk of a surprise hike | Hawkish hold, leaving the next hike open | USD/JPY, JGB yields, Nikkei |
| European Central Bank | 30 Apr 2026 | Deposit rate held at 2.00% | Full optionality, with a soft signal of a possible June hike | Euro, German two-year yields, European equities |
| Bank of England | 30 Apr 2026 | Held at 3.75% | Relatively hawkish caution: no cut before inflation and energy become clearer | Sterling, gilts, UK interest-rate-sensitive equities |
Each central bank faces the same shock but from a different starting point. The Federal Reserve sees a US economy better able to absorb energy prices, but it cannot declare victory over inflation. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are more sensitive to imported energy and wage expectations, making the risk of “insurance tightening”, or at least a delayed cut, greater. The Bank of Japan has inflation and wages supporting normalisation, but Japan is a major energy importer, and tightening at the wrong time could weigh on growth and equities.
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