Bitcoin has not decoupled from equities but has moved closer to gold: what does the data say about October’s decline?

US equities closed at record highs while Bitcoin fell to its October lows, prompting headlines that it had “decoupled” from equities. We measured its daily moves since 2024 and found that the correlation persists, while the gap in performance is longstanding and has narrowed since June. What is new is its sensitivity to the Treasury yield, which reached its highest level since 2002, and its closer co-movement with gold than with the S&P 500.

−33.2%

The gap between Bitcoin’s close on 7 October and its all-time closing high

0.60

Bitcoin’s daily correlation with SPY in October sessions

+42.1%

Bitcoin’s gain since its lowest close in 2026 on 30 June

5.31%

The ten-year Treasury yield on 5 October, its highest since May 2002

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EL7 Research · Cryptocurrencies

8 October 2026 · Prices through the close on 7 October