Track the evolution of major financial and economic events
The Euro experienced a modest pullback against the US Dollar as markets remained cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision. Analysts from Scotiabank noted this cautious sentiment, while Commerzbank suggested that a hawkish ECB tone could limit the currency's downside. As of July 21, the Euro continued to trade in a limited range awaiting the official policy outcome.
Global markets are awaiting technology sector earnings to test equity resilience, while the Euro's rally depends on the European Central Bank's stance. Meanwhile, oil prices are rising due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors are heavily betting on corporate earnings to sustain the market rally, with Jefferies analysts expecting the S&P 500 to climb during the upcoming weeks of the financial reporting period.
The EUR/USD pair approached the 1.1600 resistance level after surpassing the previous weekly high of 1.1435, driven by a bullish shift in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). By July 20, the pair faced technical hurdles near 1.1500, while a rising channel formed on the 4-hour chart with support at 1.1400. Despite struggling to break higher, the Euro remained supported above the 1.1365 level against the US Dollar.
The USDCAD pair faced significant selling pressure following weaker-than-expected US inflation data, breaking key technical support levels and stabilizing near resistance zones at 1.4068 and 1.4077. Markets are currently awaiting the Bank of Canada's rate decision and US retail sales data to determine the next fundamental direction, amid mixed US Dollar performance and rising Treasury yields. Meanwhile, US equity futures pointed to a weak opening led by a sell-off in tech stocks, and the USDJPY pair fluctuated following Japanese comments on domestic investment.
The US Dollar initially rose driven by increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and expectations of potential interest rate hikes. By July 20, the currency experienced mixed signals as Treasury yields climbed and deadlines for new tariffs approached. These movements reflect the market's response to shifting economic and political pressures during this period.
Deutsche Bank reported that risk-adjusted carry yields have become the primary driver of FX markets in 2026 due to global stability, supporting the US dollar while the Japanese yen remains under pressure. Separately, the bank agreed to pay an A$2 million penalty to resolve allegations of systemic reporting failures involving over 260,000 OTC derivative transactions. These events highlight the bank's dual focus on shifting currency market dynamics and addressing significant regulatory compliance issues regarding trade reporting.
Dollar-selling activity related to SK Hynix's U.S. share sale pushed the South Korean won to a more than one-month high against the dollar. The company's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) sale was oversubscribed by more than seven times prior to pricing. SK Hynix is now set to repatriate over $26 billion from the share sale proceeds over the coming month.
The EUR/USD pair remains below the key resistance level of 1.1499, supporting a continued downward trend. A break of the 1.1323 support level could target the 100% projection at 1.1175. The pair has stayed in consolidation above 1.1323 with the overall outlook remaining bearish. Further decline is expected as long as the 1.1499 resistance level remains intact.
The USD/JPY pair experienced a steep decline and broke the 161.51 support level, confirming a short-term top at 162.83. The intraday bias for USD/JPY has shifted to the downside, targeting the 38.2% retracement level at 159.84. The pair found technical support at a previous resistance area around the 161.00 level.
The EUR/USD pair is nearing its weekly high at 1.1435. Technical analysis indicates a fading of the bearish momentum that was previously affecting the pair. On July 6, the pair surpassed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downward move but faces selling pressure. Bears remain active near the 1.1675 resistance and the 100-period simple moving average.
Japan spent $74 billion propping up the yen, which hit a 40-year low. Investors noted that intervention alone is insufficient due to wide U.S.-Japan rate differentials. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated Tokyo's readiness to respond appropriately to disorderly currency moves, confirming close coordination with Washington. The yen steadied at 161.2 per dollar after recovering from a low of 162.84. Bankruptcies linked to the weak yen rose 32.3% in the first half of the year, totaling 45 cases.
The USD/JPY pair remained strong above 16.00 despite a decline in the US dollar and bond yields following a confirmed ceasefire. Markets witnessed record short bets against the yen ahead of central bank meetings, prompting Japan's Finance Minister Katayama to announce readiness for strong action against speculative moves. The pair is currently facing a technical resistance zone between 160.90 and 161.95.
The US Dollar maintained its strength globally due to the continued partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and associated geopolitical risks. In Egypt, the dollar initially experienced a sharp decline against the Egyptian Pound, approaching the 50 EGP level in mid-June. However, the exchange rate rose back toward the 50 EGP mark by June 21.
The USD/JPY pair is targeting a cycle high of 162.00 as policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ persists. While markets anticipate a 'dovish hike' from the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady rates while adjusting forward guidance to combat inflation. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices continue to support the US dollar, though sustained high interest rates may challenge the AI-driven market growth narrative.
The Euro exchange rate dropped against the US Dollar following the release of strong US employment data on June 8. On June 10, OCBC analysts suggested that ECB rate hikes might limit the Euro's upside potential. By June 11, Commerzbank noted that the ECB's monetary policy outlook continues to prevent the Euro from making significant gains against the Greenback.
The EUR/USD pair failed to clear the 1.1650 resistance level, initiating a decline that broke through key support levels at 1.1620 and 1.1600. The pair is currently attempting to close above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1595. Meanwhile, markets are evaluating a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy this week, which could trigger a recovery for the Euro.
The USD/JPY pair advanced past the psychological 160.00 threshold, maintaining its position above this level for three consecutive days. This price action has fueled market speculation regarding potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Yen. Meanwhile, Japanese officials have continued to issue repeated warnings concerning currency intervention as prices reach critical levels.
The US Dollar strengthened after private sector employment rose by 122,000 in May, exceeding market expectations of 117,000. U.S. private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending May 23, 2026. This average slightly decreased to 25,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ending May 30, 2026. These figures provide a chronological overview of the private labor market's performance during the period.
The EUR/USD pair weakened in early June but managed to hold above critical support levels at 1.1575 and 1.1499. Throughout the period, the intraday bias remained neutral with expected consolidations below the 1.1685 resistance level. Despite this stability, downside risks persist as long as resistance holds, with a potential technical target of 1.1408.
Global markets are bracing for the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Warsh amid rising rate hike speculations and crucial US inflation data. Investors are navigating geopolitical uncertainty due to escalating tensions in Iran and elevated oil prices, while the ECB is expected to raise interest rates. Markets ended on a defensive note following a sharp correction in AI-driven stocks, even as investor confidence in the Euro area shows signs of expected improvement.
The EUR/USD pair broke below a key support zone following a stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on June 6. The Euro is currently attempting to recover from a sharp multi-month decline, though gains remain capped by critical resistance zones. As of June 14, the pair is rebounding after hitting the lower bounds of a downtrend that originated in April.
On June 4, the USD/JPY pair approached a critical resistance zone between 160.20 and 160.60, levels where the BoJ previously threatened intervention. The EUR/USD managed to hold above support levels of 1.1530-1.1580 and broke above the first resistance at 1.1660. The USD/JPY pair remained mostly neutral, moving by only 0.1% over the last two sessions as the Yen struggled to recover. The USD/JPY is testing the 160 level as markets await US Non-Farm Payrolls data as a catalyst for volatility.
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this Thursday to combat inflation, becoming the first major central bank to do so since the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war. Alongside the rate hike, the ECB is anticipated to provide an upward revision of its inflation forecasts. These developments place the stability of the EUR/GBP pair at risk ahead of the crucial June policy meeting.
The Eurozone PMI has hit an 18-month low, raising concerns about stagflation amid a 4% inflation rate. However, the Eurozone and Germany PMIs were revised higher, signaling economic resilience. Additionally, business activity in the Eurozone contracted as war-driven inflation surged.
