Geopolitics Key Facts • Reports citing Axios indicate Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike. • An official stated that Khamenei's body was recovered from his destroyed compound. • The United States is hitting military targets in Iran alongside the Israeli operation. Commodities Key Facts • Markets are bracing for a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz following escalation between the U.S. and Iran. • $100 crude oil has emerged as a significant upside risk for traders. Macro Economy Key Facts • The collapse of Geneva talks shifted the market framework from negotiation risk to open conflict. • Global markets closed February under unexpected shock conditions. • Critical technical levels were identified for the Dow, TNX, DXY, Gold, and WTI. Stocks Key Facts • Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on Dec. 31 after over half a century in leadership. • Berkshire Hathaway holds a massive $373 billion cash pile, reflecting a lack of attractive investment opportunities. • Buffett was a persistent net seller of stocks leading up to his retirement, signaling that the market is historically expensive. Forex Key Facts • Attacks on Iran and retaliatory strikes have occurred. • Oil prices are expected to gap higher at the market open. • Gold prices are anticipated to gap higher as a safe-haven asset. Crypto Key Facts • SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the U.S. missed past opportunities to effectively regulate the crypto sector. • The SEC plans to move at a faster pace to support innovation within the digital asset space. • This statement comes as Bitcoin price hovers around the $67,000 level. Central Banks Key Facts • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman confirmed that an updated Basel III proposal is expected to be released by the end of March 2026. • Regulators at the Fed, OCC, and FDIC have reached a consensus on the reproposal of the banking regulation framework. • The new proposal aims to recalibrate capital requirements for residential mortgage lending to encourage banks to re-enter the mortgage business. Bonds Key Facts • The 10-Year Treasury yield dropped to 3.95%, marking its first time below 4% since November. • Yields retreated by a total of 28 bps in February driven by a flight to quality. Key Facts • Iran reportedly launched military strikes against its Gulf neighbors. • A fire broke out at Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, resulting in four injuries. • The incident targeted a vital tourism area known for luxury hotels and resorts. Key Facts • Reports of a military strike targeting top Iranian leadership, including IRGC generals and the Ayatollah. • The attack occurred on a Saturday while global markets were closed, leaving Bitcoin as the only traded asset for immediate reaction. • Bitcoin's price action is being monitored as a leading indicator (green light) for how traditional markets will open on Monday. Key Facts • Donald Trump described Khamenei's death as the 'single greatest chance' for the Iranian people to take back their country. • The Iranian Supreme Leader died without a designated successor, raising questions about the country's future. • There are concerns regarding a protracted conflict and internal instability within Iran. Key Facts • The United States launched a major military strike on Iran without prior congressional approval. • The strike triggered bipartisan concern, prompting a legislative push to restrict presidential war powers. Key Facts • Iranian authorities report over 85 girls killed in an air strike targeting the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab, Hormozgan province. • The attack occurred as the United States and Israel began launching strikes on targets across Iran. • Victims are reported to be between 7 and 12 years old according to Iran's Tasnim and Fars news agencies. Key Facts • The United States and Israel conducted a military strike on Iran just two days after the latest round of talks. • The attack coincided with nationwide protests in Iran that began over economic issues and evolved into anti-government demonstrations. • The UN Security Council convened an urgent session to discuss the recent developments. Key Facts • The U.S. and Israel have initiated major combat operations and a broad military campaign against targets across Iran. • A Bloomberg strategist warned that Trump's rhetoric urging regime change could lead to a prolonged era of high volatility rather than a one-off shock. • Unusual options market activity, including SPY puts and gold/silver calls, was observed prior to the strikes. Key Facts • The Trump administration launched military strikes in Iran under 'Operation Epic Furry'. • Coordinated protests broke out in major US cities (NYC, LA) under the slogan 'Hands Off Iran'. • Reports suggest a network of NGOs linked to the CCP is behind the organization of these protests. Key Facts • Russia accused the United States of a 'pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression' against Iran. • The Arab League described Iranian attacks as a 'blatant violation of the sovereignty of countries.' Key Facts • Xi Jinping links his legitimacy to the 'China Dream' of national rejuvenation by 2049, framing Taiwan's unification as essential. • Recent purges within China's Central Military Commission (CMC) have potentially removed voices that could dissuade a decision to invade. • Assessments suggest the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may not currently be capable of defeating the U.S. in a direct conflict. Key Facts • Donald Trump warned Iran of unprecedented force in retaliation for any potential attacks. • Bitcoin prices remained steady despite the escalation in U.S. retaliatory rhetoric. Key Facts • US stocks of missile interceptors could run low within days if the current intensity of Iranian attacks persists. • Intense Iranian missile barrages are testing US defensive and logistical capabilities. Key Facts • The WTI spot price reached $66.36 per barrel on February 23, 2026. Key Facts • Analysts estimate that current oil prices include a geopolitical risk premium ranging from $4 to $10 per barrel. Key Facts • USD ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 53.0 on March 2. • EUR CPI is forecasted at 1.8% YoY on March 3. • USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 52.3 on March 4. Key Facts • The real GDP growth estimate for Q1 2026 was revised down to 3.0% from 3.1%. • The update reflects recent data on private investment and government expenditures. Key Facts • AOI targets $1B in CY26 revenue, exceeding consensus estimates of $856M. • Data center revenues are projected to jump 3.5x, driven by 800G and 1.6T optical modules. • The company plans to expand gross margins from 31% to 40% via capacity expansion and higher-speed modules. Key Facts • NVIDIA and global telecom leaders including Ericsson, Nokia, and SoftBank committed to building 6G on open, software-defined platforms. • The collaboration aims to integrate AI natively into 6G network architecture to advance wireless innovation. • The initiative includes partnerships with governments across Europe, Japan, Korea, the U.K., and the U.S. Key Facts • Nvidia's revenue growth is expected to exceed 50% following last week's earnings report. • Nvidia is trading at 22 times forward earnings, which is below its 5-year average. Key Facts • VinFast Auto announced their Q4 2025 earnings on March 2, 2026. Key Facts • The US Dollar exchange rate against the Pakistani Rupee stood at 280.35 for buying and 282.15 for selling on March 1, 2026. • The Euro was recorded at 330.75/335.28, while the UK Pound was at 377.90/382.16 against the Rupee. Key Facts • USD/JPY closed at 154.76 at the end of February 2026. • USD/CHF was recorded at 0.7730. • GBP/USD exchange rate reached 1.3683. Key Facts • Bitcoin price rebounded to surpass the $68,000 level during early Sunday trading in Asia. • The surge followed reports cited by Bloomberg regarding the death of Iran's supreme leader. • Price movements occurred under thin weekend liquidity conditions, leading to rapid market reactions. Key Facts • Bitcoin price volatility led to nearly $300 million in liquidations within a 24-hour period. • Bitcoin price successfully defended the $63,000 support zone. Key Facts • Solana led the bounce with a 10.8% increase, while Ether reclaimed the $2,000 level. • Bitcoin climbed back above $66,800 ahead of traditional futures opens on Sunday. • Major tokens including XRP, Solana, and Ether surged up to 10% to recover Saturday's losses. Key Facts • Solana ETFs saw record institutional cash inflows on February 28. • This marks the largest fund rush into Solana exchange-traded products in several months. Key Facts • ARB token price dropped 8% in a single day, reaching $0.0921 on February 28. • Large-scale investors (whales) dumped 60 million ARB tokens. 2 sources Key Facts • Bitcoin ETFs recorded $787.31 million in net inflows for the week ending February 27. • These flows reversed the prior week's $315.86 million in outflows. • The positive flows were driven by three consecutive days of strong buying from February 24-26. Key Facts • Current BTC price is $66,280, with a forecast of $66,473 by March 2, 2026. • Technical indicators show 75% bullish sentiment despite 'Extreme Fear' on the Fear & Greed Index. Key Facts • Prediction market shows 96% odds that the Fed will maintain rates at its March 2026 meeting. • There are low probabilities for a 25bps cut (3%) or a cut of more than 25bps (2%).