Orcel Expects Approval for Commerzbank Deal by End-November After Record Results
Key Facts
UniCredit Chief Executive Andrea Orcel expects to obtain the regulatory approvals needed to complete its takeover offer for Commerzbank by the end of November, a step that would bring control of the German bank closer to its Italian rival. After settlement of the offer, UniCredit intends to request a general meeting to elect new members to the supervisory board and expects to take control once settlement is complete. The European Commission is due to issue its decision on the deal on 16 November, and Reuters reported, citing sources, that UniCredit is likely to receive unconditional EU antitrust approval. The European decision remains one step in the outstanding approval process before the shares tendered in the offer are transferred. Alongside the deal process, Commerzbank reported record results for the first nine months of 2026, while reaffirming its annual profit target.
Operating profit reached 4.037 billion euros in the first nine months, up 17% from 3.442 billion euros in the same period of 2025, the bank's best nine-month result in its history. Net result after taxes and non-controlling interests rose 41% to 2.669 billion euros, from 1.888 billion euros a year earlier. Revenue increased 8% to 9.7 billion euros, driven by higher net commission income and an improvement in net interest income. The bank said a decline in risk provisions related to foreign-currency loans at mBank contributed positively to revenue. Return on tangible equity was 12.4%, compared with 8.2% in the first nine months of 2025.
Despite the strong results, Commerzbank revised its full-year net interest income outlook to about 8.5 billion euros, from about 8.6 billion euros previously. The bank attributed the revision to increased competition for deposits, which is weighing on income from its banking business. It reaffirmed its target of net result of at least 3.4 billion euros for fiscal 2026. It also kept its annual revenue outlook at about 13.2 billion euros and continued to expect a risk result of around 850 million euros. The outlook reflects the bank's continued commitment to its profit target despite lowering its estimate for one of its main sources of income.
The bank said the risk result was negative 554 million euros after nine months, compared with negative 515 million euros in the corresponding period of 2025, adding that it was in line with expectations. For capital distributions, Commerzbank is targeting the return of about 3.2 billion euros to shareholders during fiscal 2026. The new share buyback program covers up to 1.2 billion euros and began on 4 September. The bank said it had bought back shares equivalent to about 70% of the program's target amount by the time it announced the results. The program is expected to be completed no later than 10 February 2027.
Regulatory approvals remain a condition for completing the takeover offer and transferring the shares tendered during the additional acceptance period. The European Central Bank approved an increase in UniCredit's stake above the previous regulatory threshold on 15 October, but that approval did not conclude the remaining procedures. The shares tendered represented 17.60% of Commerzbank's shares at the end of the additional acceptance period on 3 July. Commerzbank said in its interim financial information that the remaining approvals were expected during the fourth quarter or by early 2027 at the latest. UniCredit's end-November timeline would allow the procedures to be completed before the German bank's stated outside deadline.
Commerzbank Chief Executive Bettina Orlopp affirmed the responsibility of the current management board and said the bank was convinced that value could be created with UniCredit by drawing on the strengths of both banks. Her remarks come as the two parties prepare to move from the approval phase to settlement of the offer, if the regulatory requirements are met. In the stock market, Commerzbank shares closed at 44.07 dollars on 13 November, while UniCredit shares closed at 46.30 dollars on the same day. The European Commission's decision on 16 November is the next announced milestone in the deal process. After that, the timing of settlement and the share transfer will depend on completion of the outstanding approvals.