UK house prices hit £276,157 in Q3, up 1.2% year on year
Key Facts
The average UK house price was £276,157 in the third quarter of 2026, up 1.2% year on year, according to Nationwide data. But prices fell 0.4% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, combining limited annual growth with a decline from the previous quarter. The figures offer a different picture from the claim that real prices fell 2% during the quarter, as Nationwide measures nominal price changes here and does not report that real decline. The data came as a separate RICS survey showed the house price balance fell in October. Differences in the periods and methodologies indicate that Nationwide’s quarterly reading and RICS’s monthly balance describe different aspects of the market.
Geographically, market performance varied markedly in the third quarter: house prices rose 5.9% year on year in Northern Ireland, while falling 0.7% in East Anglia. The average price was £227,922 in Northern Ireland, compared with £272,119 in East Anglia, according to Nationwide data. The comparison shows that the national figure does not reflect a uniform trend across all regions. Northern Ireland also recorded annual growth above the 1.2% for the UK as a whole, while East Anglia was the weaker of the two regions included in the data. This is a regional comparison and does not, on its own, identify the reasons for differences in price movements between areas.
In the October survey, the RICS house price balance fell to -36% from -34% in September, declining for a second consecutive month after signs of stability over the summer. The new buyer enquiries balance remained at -24%, unchanged from the previous month, while the agreed sales balance fell to -24% from -18%. The readings combine a steady enquiries measure with a decline in agreed sales, consistent with the cooling in activity reported by survey participants. The house price expectations balance for the next twelve months also dropped to -17% in October, after recording zero in September. These indicators are net balances in the RICS survey, not percentages of actual price changes.
Bank of England data showed weakness in housing finance: mortgage approvals for house purchases fell 8% in the three months to September compared with the previous three months, with the monthly level reaching its lowest reading since 2023. The bank said that "a large part of this weakness is likely to reflect higher mortgage rates since the start of the conflict." Its agents reported that demand in the housing market had weakened further, with a marked downturn at the higher end of the market and signs that it was spreading to the lower end. They added that the widening gap between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ willingness to pay had prolonged negotiations on deals. These observations place the decline in approvals and weakness in completed sales in the context of a market facing pressure from borrowing costs and diverging positions between buyers and sellers.
At the economic level, the Office for National Statistics attributed most of third-quarter GDP growth to services, whose output rose 0.9%, while production increased 0.1% and construction contracted 0.7%. The contraction in construction puts a sector directly linked to property activity among the parts of the economy that declined during the period, though the data do not identify it as a direct cause of house price movements. In its forecasts, the Office for Budget Responsibility said average house prices would grow by about 2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, while continuing to rise more slowly than consumer prices. It attributed this largely to higher mortgage rates and stagnant real incomes. These forecasts provide an annual price trajectory, separate from Nationwide’s quarterly decline and RICS’s monthly balances.
Attention is turning to upcoming October data, which the Office for National Statistics has scheduled for release at 7:00 a.m. Consumer price inflation data are due on 18 November 2026, followed by Great Britain retail sales data on 20 November 2026. The figures will provide a more recent reading on prices and consumer spending in the context of monitoring housing market conditions. The latest housing indicators cited here cover third-quarter prices, the October RICS survey and mortgage approvals in the three months to September. Differences in measurement dates remain central when comparing these indicators.