Ship Transits Through Bab el-Mandeb Fall to 23 a Day Amid No Independent Confirmation of Control
Key Facts
Reports that Yemeni government forces withdrew from Dhubab and Bab el-Mandeb on 15 November could not be verified, and a transfer of control over the strait to the Houthis was not confirmed. In an assessment issued on 12 November, the Joint Maritime Information Center of the British Maritime Trade Operations said independent sources had not confirmed stable or full control of the strait’s entrances or its main islands. The assessment cited competing claims over the Kahbub highlands by forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Houthis between 8 and 12 November. The government said it controlled the area, while the Houthis said they had driven out Saudi-backed units and seized positions there. Conflicting accounts on the ground, rather than confirmation of control, therefore remained the basis for assessing conditions near one of the vital shipping lanes.
Assessment data showed commercial ship transits through Bab el-Mandeb averaged about 23 a day between 8 and 11 November, compared with about 32 a day in the previous week. The decline points to weaker traffic through the passage during the period observed, amid continued security tensions in the area. The center said no confirmed attacks or disruptions were recorded in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb during the reporting period. It added, however, that transit traffic remained below levels before the selective maritime blockade announced by the Houthis on 20 July. The threat level in the strait and southern Red Sea remained “substantial,” with deliberate attacks considered highly likely.
The center described Bab el-Mandeb as open to commercial traffic but volatile. It also expected transit traffic to remain at low, stable levels as continuing security risks could affect ship operators’ decisions. The assessment said the Houthis retained a coastal presence and the ability to launch strikes along the southern Red Sea approaches after territorial gains in September. It said Houthi messaging described the maritime blockade announced on 20 July as selective, targeting ships linked to Israel, Saudi Arabia or Yemen’s internationally recognized government. By contrast, the assessment considered an expansion of targeting to all commercial ships unlikely. It did not link the reported withdrawal incident to any specific change in insurance premiums or oil prices.
The strait’s importance reflects the volume of trade that passes through it under normal conditions. The Associated Press estimated in a report published on 10 November that about 12% of global trade, including a quarter of container traffic, passed through Bab el-Mandeb in peacetime on the route between Asia and Europe. The agency said the strait is less than 30 kilometers wide, making its approaches strategically important to shipping. The oil route through the Red Sea has gained importance amid severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which the agency said has been used as an alternative route for oil exports from the Gulf. These figures put current transit traffic in the context of a trade and energy corridor, without by themselves establishing a price impact from the latest military developments.
Against the backdrop of broader maritime risks, the agency reported that European naval mission commanders had cited an increase in piracy in the region. It said 79 piracy attacks had been recorded since the Houthis began attacks on shipping in the strait in November 2023, including about 30 attacks after the Iran war broke out in February 2026. These incidents point to multiple sources of risk for ships in the area, alongside the threat associated with the Yemen conflict. Reuters reported in September, citing two Yemeni government sources, that government forces had withdrawn from Perim Island and the Houthis had taken control of the coastal town of Dhubab opposite it, in a development it said could tighten their grip on the shipping route. In the same report, government forces said they intended to try to retake areas seized by the Houthis along the coast and would deploy weapons and aircraft to counter their movements in strategic areas and on the road leading to Mokha.