Xiaomi Shares Fall 2.2% as CLSA Sees 62% Drop in Adjusted Third-Quarter Profit
Key Facts
Xiaomi shares fell 2.2% on Friday, November 13, as technology and internet stocks declined in Hong Kong after CLSA cut its forecasts for the company ahead of its third-quarter results. The brokerage estimated adjusted net profit would fall 62% year over year to 4.4 billion yuan, while revenue would contract 6.9% to 105.3 billion yuan. That forecast puts pressure on the smartphone, connected-device and auto businesses in focus, despite a record October figure for vehicle deliveries. EL7 data for XIACY showed the stock closing at 18.45 on November 13, after 18.83 on November 12 and 18.71 on November 11. The data did not specify the currency of the recorded prices.
CLSA forecast lower third-quarter revenue across all three main business units, meaning that, in its estimates, growth in auto deliveries did not translate into revenue growth for the auto business during the period. It estimated smartphone revenue at 44.4 billion yuan, down about 3% year over year. It expected revenue from internet-connected devices, known as AIoT, to fall 4% to 26 billion yuan. For electric vehicles, it forecast revenue would decline 17% to 24 billion yuan. The projected drop in adjusted profit thus coincided with contracting revenue across each of these units.
Xiaomi, meanwhile, said electric-vehicle deliveries topped 50,000 in October, the company’s highest monthly total in 2026. Reuters reported that deliveries reached about 336,000 vehicles in the first ten months of the year. That equals about 61% of the company’s target of 550,000 vehicle deliveries in 2026. The figures place October’s strong performance in the context of deliveries through year-end, while CLSA expects auto revenue to fall year over year in the third quarter. Deliveries and revenue remain distinct measures of the unit’s performance during the period.
CLSA cut its adjusted net profit forecasts by 13% for 2026 and 17% for 2027, citing weaker-than-expected consumer spending in China. The brokerage maintained its Outperform rating and a HK$35 price target, according to estimates published on November 12. The annual forecast cuts indicate that, in its view, the effect of weak consumer demand extends beyond the third quarter. In its unit estimates, CLSA combined declines in smartphone, connected-device and auto sales with a steeper projected drop in auto revenue for the quarter. The forecasts come ahead of the company’s results review.
CLSA expected profit to hit a low in the third quarter, then begin recovering in the fourth quarter alongside new product launches. It also expected profit growth to resume in 2027. The recovery path it outlined therefore depends on results moving from the projected third-quarter contraction to a later improvement, and on the impact of new product launches. Its annual forecast cuts reflect, according to the brokerage, weaker Chinese consumer spending than it had previously estimated. These forecasts can be compared with Xiaomi’s results when the company reports on schedule.