Russian Seaborne Grain Exports Fall 55.8% in October to 2.8 Million Tonnes
Key Facts
Russian seaborne grain exports fell to 2.8 million tonnes in October, down 55.8% year on year, as shipments from southern ports nearly ground to a halt following drone attacks, according to shipping data cited by Baird Maritime from industry sources. The decline reflects a contraction in flows along the route that had come under attack, while increased shipments on alternative routes could not prevent an overall drop. Shipments through Baltic and Arctic ports rose, but the increase did not offset losses in the south. The steepest blow was concentrated at Black Sea ports, where shipments fell to a small fraction of their previous level. October's data place the monthly decline within a broader trend of weakening Russian seaborne exports since the start of the season.
Seaborne exports since the start of the season totaled 9 million tonnes through October, down 53.8% from the same period a year earlier, according to the shipping data cited in the report. The seasonal decline mirrors October's trend, with cumulative shipments remaining more than half lower year on year. The figure shows that the drop was not confined to a single month but extended to the season's total through the end of October. Exports reached 2.8 million tonnes in October alone, down 55.8% year on year. Taken together, the monthly and seasonal figures put the contraction in seaborne grain flows in its temporal context.
In the Black Sea, shipments through terminals fell 94% to 339,000 tonnes in October, according to shipping data cited by Baird Maritime. The sharp decline came amid drone attacks on southern ports, whose shipments the report's data described as nearly halted. The disruption at these terminals shifted a large share of grain prepared for export onto a new route through Baltic terminals and the Arctic port of Murmansk. But the change in destination did not alter the month's total, with Russian seaborne exports ending at 2.8 million tonnes. The comparison between the Black Sea decline and the surge on other routes shows the extent to which disruption at southern ports affected total shipments.
Baltic and Arctic ports recorded the largest increase among alternative routes, with exports rising 800% to 1.72 million tonnes in October, according to shipping data. The rerouting of grain included the Arctic port of Murmansk and Baltic terminals, after a large share of volumes prepared for export shifted to this route. Russian companies repurposed terminals previously used for fertilizer, coal and other cargo to handle grain, including Ust-Luga and Murmansk. Even so, terminal capacity was insufficient to offset the loss of southern ports. The 800% increase therefore did not prevent total seaborne exports from falling 55.8% year on year.
Other routes also recorded increases in October: shipments through the Caspian Sea rose 113.5% to 580,000 tonnes, while shipments through Far East terminals increased 158.8% to 136,000 tonnes, according to shipping data. These gains reflect the broadening geographic shift in grain flows, alongside growth in shipments through the Baltic and Arctic. But the month's data show that growth on alternative routes was not enough to make up for the decline in the Black Sea, where shipments fell to 339,000 tonnes. Total seaborne exports ended at 2.8 million tonnes, down 55.8% year on year. For the season through October, the total was 9 million tonnes, 53.8% below the corresponding period.