G7’s Additional Defense Commitments Could Reach $8 Trillion Over a Decade
Key Facts
Fortune reported on November 15 that additional defense commitments by G7 countries could approach $8 trillion over the next decade, based on a Carlyle estimate. The figure reflects a possible trajectory for defense spending in the group’s countries and is not a forecast of annual global military spending. Carlyle estimates that defense spending as a share of the G7 countries’ gross domestic product has risen to 2.0%, its highest level in more than 30 years. The share could reach 3.8% by 2030 under the trajectory underpinning the estimates. That places the proposed U.S. increase within a broader wave of rearmament, while its approval remains subject to the political process in Washington.
In the United States, the 2027 defense budget proposal includes $1.5 trillion, an increase of more than 40% over the previous level, Fortune reported. Democratic Representative Adam Smith said the proposed budget was too high, calling for it to be reduced and for an investigation into the Pentagon’s dealings with defense contractors. The objections come after Democrats won control of the House of Representatives, but the new Congress does not take office until January 3, 2027. Until then, the current Congress continues a six-week lame-duck session, according to the Associated Press. The change in control of the House therefore does not mean the proposal has been formally rejected or that the current Congress is unable to make decisions on it.
The European push to increase spending is linked, according to Linda Bilmes, a lecturer at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, to the continuing war in Ukraine and declining confidence in the reliability of U.S. support for NATO. Bilmes said: "In Europe, there is a combination of a war that has been going on for four years in Ukraine and Russia, and the unreliability of the United States in supporting NATO." Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show European military spending rose 14% to $864 billion in 2025. In Asia and Oceania, spending increased 8.1% to $681 billion in the same year. Global military spending reached $2,887 billion in 2025, a real increase of 2.9% from 2024, marking the 11th consecutive annual increase, although growth was slower than the 9.7% rise in 2024.
NATO figures likewise reflect a rise in Europe’s and Canada’s contribution to defense spending. European member states and Canada spent $574 billion in 2025, equivalent to 2.33% of their combined gross domestic product, according to the alliance secretary-general’s annual report. The United States accounted for 60% of total nominal defense spending by member states. At the 2025 Hague summit, allies committed to spending 5% of GDP annually on defense and security-related investments by 2035. The commitment is divided between at least 3.5% for core defense requirements and up to 1.5% for broader defense- and security-related investments. NATO said in March 2026 that spending by European allies and Canada rose 20% in 2025 compared with 2024.
In the Middle East, Saudi military spending rose 1.4% to $83.2 billion in 2025, placing the kingdom eighth globally among the largest military spenders, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The increase puts Saudi spending within the data for a year in which global military spending continued to rise, while Carlyle’s estimates remain tied to G7 commitments over the next decade. On the U.S. side, the budget deficit was $404 billion in October 2026, up 42% from the same month a year earlier, according to Bloomberg, which reported the figure on November 12. The deficit provides a fiscal backdrop to the debate over the defense proposal, but does not by itself determine the fate of the appropriation. The next political step is the congressional lame-duck session before the new House takes office on January 3, 2027.
The White House is seeking $1.45 trillion for the Department of War in its fiscal 2027 budget document, an increase of 44% over 2026. This remains an official funding request, not an appropriation approved by Congress, according to the U.S. budget document. The document’s figure differs from the $1.5 trillion figure in Fortune’s report on the defense budget proposal; both concern funding requests for 2027. With control of the House shifting in January, approval of the funding and its details will remain under discussion between the administration and Congress. Carlyle’s estimate, meanwhile, links the spending trajectory over the next decade to increased defense commitments by G7 countries.