EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•14 November 2026•
4 min read

Fertilizer trade delayed by 3 million tonnes a month as tanker traffic through Hormuz falls

Key Facts

1Between 1.5 and 3 million tonnes of fertilizer trade were delayed each month, and diammonium phosphate prices rose 26%.
2Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 90%, and 20% to 30% of fertilizer trade passes through it.
3A UN official said five fertilizer ships a day would be enough to avert the imminent food crisis.
4A UN official estimated that setting up a system to resume fertilizer trade would take seven to ten days after the parties approved it.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said disruption in the fertilizer market delayed between 1.5 and 3 million tonnes of trade a month and pushed diammonium phosphate prices up 26%, according to a statement issued on 24 September 2026. At the same time, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 90%, the organization said. Between 20% and 30% of fertilizer trade passes through the strait, making disruption to shipping a direct factor in delayed supplies. The organization said these figures describe market disruption on that date, while a separate warning attributed to a UN official in a report published on 14 November could not be verified. The documented warning therefore centers on delayed shipments and higher prices, not on a single figure for fertilizer price increases since tensions began.

In an earlier UN proposal, Jorge Moreira da Silva said that the passage of five fertilizer-laden ships a day would be enough to "nip the coming food crisis in the bud." Devex reported the remarks on 16 October 2026, in the context of a call to resume limited shipping through the strait. The official added that the UN could set up a system to resume fertilizer trade within seven to ten days if the warring parties approved the plan. The proposal puts arrangements for passage at the forefront of urgent efforts to address delayed shipments, without implying a return to normal shipping. The UN organization links continued fertilizer shortages to weaker harvests, threatening to constrain food supplies in the second half of 2026 and extend the impact into 2027.

Sudan illustrates how the crisis is spreading from agricultural inputs to food costs and risks to the farming season. A Devex report said the cost of buying a "basic food basket" in the country had doubled because of fertilizer shortages, and quoted Sudan's finance minister warning that the planting season would be lost if shipments did not arrive within three weeks. The minister said, according to the report published on 16 October, "We will lose the planting season" if supplies did not arrive within that timeframe. The warning is limited to the cost of the basic food basket and does not describe a general rise in food prices. It also links the impact of delays to the agricultural calendar, as missing the deadline for the arrival of inputs could cost the season on which domestic production depends.

On prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization said its food price index rose 1.9% in August 2026, while grain prices increased 2.2%; wheat was 15% above its level a year earlier, according to its 24 September statement. In an earlier warning issued in May, the organization said fertilizer shortages could reduce harvests, constrain food supplies in the second half of 2026 and extend their impact into 2027. It had also reported that its food price index rose for a third consecutive month in April, amid high energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. These indicators place fertilizer disruption among broader pressures on food costs and agricultural production, although each reading covers a different period. The August and April figures do not measure price movements on 14 November; they record earlier conditions reported in the organization's statements.

The Food and Agriculture Organization called for securing alternative land and sea corridors to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and avoiding export restrictions on energy, fertilizers and agricultural inputs. It also called for food aid to be exempt from trade restrictions. The organization said these short-term measures are intended to keep supplies flowing while the usual shipping route is disrupted. The UN proposal for ships to pass depends on approval from the warring parties, while the organization said delayed fertilizer supplies could put pressure on crops and food supplies for the remainder of 2026 and in 2027. The seven to ten days Moreira da Silva estimated for setting up the passage system remains conditional on that approval.