Shell’s $2 Billion Tax Estimate Relates to 2022 Earnings, Not 2026
Key Facts
The tax story circulating does not establish a new Shell announcement about liabilities for the fourth quarter of 2026; the source it relies on dates to January 6, 2023, and concerns an expected impact on fourth-quarter 2022 earnings. oEnergetice.cz cited the ČTK news agency as saying the total impact of additional taxes in the European Union and Britain was expected to be about $2 billion. The estimate included the European solidarity contribution, as well as the effect of a deferred tax on the windfall profits of energy companies in Britain. Shell said in the quotation cited by the source: "We expect the impact of the additional taxes announced in the European Union, namely the solidarity contribution, and the deferred tax on windfall profits of energy companies in Britain on fourth-quarter 2022 earnings to be about $2 billion." The figure relates to an estimate for an earlier earnings period, not to payments or a confirmed financial impact in 2026.
The estimate published in 2023 came amid rising energy prices during the previous year, according to the source. The report explained that the European contribution targets windfall profits recorded by oil and gas companies in 2022 or 2023. According to the source, the contribution rate is 33% on taxable profits that exceed a company’s average taxable profits. The report quoted Shell as saying that the European tax and the effect of the deferred British tax were reflected in its estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings. The $2 billion amount in that estimate remains distinct from the $2.3 billion in taxes that the Associated Press later reported Shell expected to cover European and British levies for 2022.
Shell recorded annual adjusted earnings of $39.9 billion in 2022, according to the Associated Press. Adjusted earnings rose 50% in the fourth quarter from the fourth quarter of 2021, reaching $9.8 billion. The agency described the annual earnings as a record and presented the fourth-quarter figures in the context of higher annual earnings. The new chief executive at the time, Wael Sawan, said the results reflected "the company's ability to provide vital energy to our customers in a volatile world." These results put the tax estimate in the context of the earnings period covered by the report, without changing the estimate’s date or turning it into a tax liability announced in 2026.
In Britain, the government raised the tax on oil and gas profits from 25% to 35% effective January 1, 2023, according to the UK government website. The government said the increase brought the sector’s main tax rate to 75%. The measure provides context for the British component of the tax-impact estimate published in January 2023, which the source described as the effect of a deferred tax on windfall profits. This context does not report a new Shell announcement in 2026 of an additional tax on that year’s profits. Nor does it support an estimate of the levies’ impact on the company’s net income or cash flow in the final quarter of 2026.
In trading, EL7 data showed Shell shares closed at $99.08 on November 13, 2026. The figure gives the closing level for that session, with no other data on the day’s trading range. The closing price does not establish a link between the stock’s movement and the tax estimate published for 2022. The figure therefore remains a separate indicator of the stock’s performance on that date, not a documented reaction to new tax news. Shell was scheduled to publish its full 2022 results on February 2, 2023, according to the company’s official results slides.