Nebius Sees 2027 Revenue of $12 Billion to $13 Billion After 571% Quarterly Growth
Key Facts
Nebius reported unaudited third-quarter results on November 12, posting revenue of $980.8 million for the three months ended September 30, up 571% year over year. In its shareholder letter, the company outlined an initial 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion, about four times its expected 2026 revenue. At the same time, it cut its revenue forecast for this year to the bottom of its previous range of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion. The company said some revenue expected to be recorded this year had shifted to early next year. That puts rapid demand growth for its services against the challenge of turning planned capacity into operating sites and recognized revenue.
Revenue for the first nine months totaled $1.9621 billion, up 549% from the same period a year earlier. In the third quarter of 2025, revenue was $146.1 million, underscoring the expansion of its revenue base in one year. Nebius's AI cloud computing business accounted for $973.8 million of quarterly revenue, up 643% year over year. The company said customers had committed to more than $12 billion in contract value since the start of the third quarter, describing the terms of those agreements as the strongest to date. Average annual contract value per megawatt also exceeded $25 million, compared with contracts worth $20 million to $25 million per megawatt in the second quarter.
The company said average prices per hour of GPU use rose more than 20% in the third quarter from the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization were $465.8 million, compared with a loss of $5.2 million in the third quarter of 2025. Continuing operations remained loss-making, though the net loss narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million a year earlier. The results show improvement in operating metrics alongside revenue growth, while the net loss persisted. Quarterly revenue also exceeded analysts' estimate of $907.2 million, and the company posted a loss of $0.13 per share, smaller than the consensus estimate for a loss of $0.63.
Delays to some capacity at third-party sites led the company to defer part of the revenue it had expected to record this year. Nebius said some of that capacity was now scheduled to come online in the first half of 2027, and the associated contracts remained in place. It added that its New Jersey site was transitioning to sustainable fuel cells from Bloom Energy, while its owned sites were on schedule or ahead of it. With the revenue shift, the company expects its annualized revenue run rate to exceed $7 billion in February 2027, later than its previous December outlook. It said it expects to reach that level even before the New Jersey site reaches full capacity.
Nebius expects capital expenditure of $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027, and said customer prepayments and asset-backed financing from investment-grade customers would cover 75% to 85% of that expected spending. The company said prepayments on third-quarter agreements covered more than 100% of the associated capital expenditure, compared with 50% to 60% in the second quarter. The payback period improved to one year and seven months from one year and ten months in the previous quarter. For 2026, the company raised its capital expenditure forecast to about $27 billion, above its previous range of $20 billion to $25 billion, saying the increase would fund capacity needed for 2027, particularly at its owned sites. The scale of planned investment is accompanied by the company's stated reliance on contract prepayments and financing to cover most of the spending.
The stock fell more than 10% in premarket trading on November 12, despite the company beating revenue and adjusted earnings estimates; a market report linked the weakness to its revenue and spending outlook. NBIS closed at $154.69 on November 11, then at $128.64 on November 12, before ending the November 13 session at $115.88. The closing prices show successive declines over the two sessions following the results. For this year, the company said its adjusted EBITDA margin was about 40%, with revenue at the bottom of its previous range. The key operating milestone it set is February 2027, when it expects its annualized revenue run rate to exceed $7 billion.