Gold Loses 4.7% for the Week on Tightening Bets, Inflation and Oil Pressures
Key Facts
Spot gold and futures each lost 4.7% in the week ended November 13, according to an Investing.com update published November 14. The report described spot gold’s performance as its worst since March and futures’ as their worst since early June. The losses came despite a slight rise in spot gold during Friday’s session, after it fell in the previous session to its lowest level in more than a year. In a Reuters update at 14:05 Eastern Time on Friday, spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,879.71 an ounce, after reaching $3,922.97 during the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled at $3,886.30 an ounce, while the weekly loss remained in place.
EL7 data showed the GCUSD gold contract closed at 4,114.5 on November 9, then fell to 4,000.5 on November 11 and 3,885.3 on November 12, before closing at 3,886.3 on November 13. Spot gold, XAUUSD, also closed at 4,140.685 on November 9, then at 3,877.59 on November 12 and 3,884.685 on November 13. Gold fell 3% on Thursday as oil rose and inflation and interest-rate concerns grew after a higher-than-expected U.S. inflation reading earlier in the week. Thursday’s decline kept the metal on track for a weekly loss after pushing it to its lowest level in more than a year. In Friday’s session, the price recovered from its intraday lows, but the rebound did not erase the week’s losses.
Gold’s weakness began the previous Friday after the U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, exceeding expectations of 65,000. August and September data were also revised upward by a combined 84,000 jobs. The figures reinforced the view that the labor market was stronger than traders had expected, at a time when interest rates and monetary policy were in focus for the gold market. In October, the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% month over month, compared with a 0.6% increase in September, but exceeded expectations of 0.3%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, against expectations of 0.2%.
Oil added to pressure on the metal, with prices posting gains for three consecutive sessions, according to Investing.com. The report linked part of oil’s rise to remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, in which he said Washington did not need a peace deal with Iran. Higher-than-expected inflation data also kept investor concerns about persistent price pressures in focus. Meanwhile, independent metals analyst Tai Wong said gold was struggling to hold its initial gains after producer-price data, as bond-market pressure persisted and the Federal Reserve’s tone hardened. Wong said: "Gold is struggling to hold its initial gains after producer-price data, while bond markets continue to struggle in the face of a hawkish Federal Reserve."
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed the producer price index for final demand rose 0.3% in October, after a 1.4% increase in September. On an annual basis, the index rose 6.5% in the 12 months through October, its largest increase since November 2022. October’s monthly increase was slower than September’s reading, and interest-rate pricing moved after the data were released. Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December fell to 91.4% after the producer price index was released, from 96.2% beforehand. The probability of a larger 50-basis-point increase also fell to 8.6%, from 13.8% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch tool, as reported by Reuters.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had said he was inclined to support a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December meeting. But he indicated that a core inflation reading of 0.3% or higher could warrant considering a stronger move of 50 basis points. Investing.com quoted him as saying a larger-than-usual increase could be appropriate if the data came in hot. The remarks reflect how sensitive rate pricing is to upcoming data, as gold’s weekly losses coincided with inflation concerns and tighter monetary policy. The October producer price index was scheduled for release on November 13 at 08:30 a.m. U.S. time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, as reported by Investing.com, traders viewed a December rate hike as almost certain, with about a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point increase and around a 10% probability of a 50-basis-point increase. These estimates came as investors continued to watch price data and the Federal Reserve’s stance. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the November producer price index release for December 15, 2026, at 08:30 a.m. The data will follow the October reading, which showed a slower monthly increase than in September, while annual producer inflation reached its highest level since November 2022. Gold’s weekly losses remained in place at the end of Friday’s session, despite a slight rise in the spot price during trading.