Fitch affirms UAE at AA- with stable outlook amid regional crisis
Key Facts
Fitch kept the United Arab Emirates’ sovereign rating at AA- with a stable outlook, according to a report published by Gulf News on November 14, 2026. The affirmation comes as the region faces an ongoing crisis, highlighting the agency’s assessment of the country’s ability to withstand the effects of instability. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, welcomed the strong sovereign rating from Fitch. The report said Gargash linked the assessment to the resilience of the national economy and the strength of its fiscal position despite the regional crisis. The decision to maintain the same rating reflects the agency’s view of the robust fiscal and external positions underpinning the rating.
In a post on X, Gargash highlighted the UAE’s strong public finances, the scale of its sovereign assets and economic stability after the rating affirmation. He said the assessment strengthens international confidence in the country’s economy and shows the success of its long-term fiscal and economic policies. The statement puts the UAE official’s response to the decision in the context of a message to investors about the strength of the country’s economic fundamentals. Gargash also linked economic stability and financial capacity as factors supporting confidence. The report did not provide additional figures on the size of the sovereign assets he cited.
Gulf News reported that Fitch cited low consolidated government debt, large net external assets and high GDP per capita among the factors supporting the rating. These factors, according to the report, provide fiscal and external support for the sovereign assessment. The agency also pointed to substantial fiscal and external buffers that help the UAE withstand the economic consequences of regional instability. This means the assessment rests on the country’s ability to absorb shocks through its fiscal and external resources, as well as its debt level. Fitch described these buffers as a factor that mitigates the effects of regional disruption on the economy.
In the background to the rating, a Fitch commentary published on May 23, 2026, said Abu Dhabi’s net foreign sovereign assets stood at 164% of the UAE’s GDP in 2025, among the highest of the countries rated by the agency. The commentary balanced this strength against risks including weaker governance indicators than rating peers, heightened geopolitical risks, heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues and debt at government-related entities. This balance shows that the asset base and financial support are offset by exposure to regional and fiscal risks. Fitch also said the central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves fell 9% to 277 billion dollars in March 2026. It said, however, that the high starting level of reserves and the assets of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority provide sufficient buffers to support macroeconomic stability.
The Fitch commentary published in May projected the current-account surplus would fall to 1.3% in 2026 from 10.6% in 2025. This forecast places the current-account trajectory among the pressures the agency monitors in assessing the external position, alongside reserves and sovereign assets. Fitch identified risks that could put pressure on the rating, including a continued deterioration in the security environment, disruption to oil and gas exports due to significant damage to production, processing or transport assets, or a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It also linked downgrade risks to a deterioration in fiscal and external positions resulting from a sustained decline in oil revenues or the materialization of contingent liabilities. Conversely, it said further improvement in the UAE’s consolidated balance sheet or greater fiscal flexibility at the federal level could support positive rating action.