Erste Raises 2026 EPS Growth Forecast to Above 20%, Targets Similar Return
Key Facts
On October 30, Erste Group raised its 2026 forecast, targeting earnings per share growth of more than 20% compared with 2025 net profit adjusted for one-off items, and a return on tangible equity above 20%. The group said in its update that the new return target was up from about 19% in its February guidance. It also forecast that the combined entity’s reported net profit would exceed 4 billion euros in 2026, despite exceptional items related to the integration of the Polish bank. The company tied its forecasts to broadly stable interest rates and margins. The update places the targeted earnings expansion alongside lending growth in its seven core markets.
Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 3,095 million euros in the first nine months of 2026, up 20.6% from 2,566 million in the same period. The increase reflects the inclusion of Erste Bank Polska in the results; the group said Central Europe remained the clear earnings driver, accounting for two-thirds of net profit. The company said profitability growth was lower on a comparison excluding the Polish bank, highlighting the impact of the group’s expanded scope on reported figures. For the third quarter, Investing.com reported that net profit attributable to owners of the parent company rose 24.5% year on year to 1.121 billion euros. This puts the nine-month result in quarterly context within the earnings trajectory underpinning the forecast update.
The Polish bank also boosted business volumes, with customer loans rising 23.9% year to date to 287.4 billion euros at the end of September, including Erste Bank Polska’s 41.9 billion euro portfolio. On a comparable basis excluding Poland, loans increased 5.8% and deposits 4.5% in the first nine months. Erste raised its end-2026 loan book target to more than 290 billion euros, from previous guidance of about 290 billion. Chief Executive Peter Bosek said the ambition to exceed that level reflected the group’s confidence in Central Europe and its commitment to financing the region’s growth. The company also forecast loan volume growth of between 6% and 8% in its seven core markets, compared with previous guidance for growth of more than 5%.
Interest and fee income expanded with the inclusion of Poland, but comparable growth rates were more moderate. Net interest income rose 43.4% to 8.3 billion euros in the first nine months including the Polish bank, while growth was 7.0% excluding it. Net fee and commission income climbed 24.0% to 2.9 billion euros with Poland, against comparable growth of 9.5% excluding it. The group said retail lending growth outside Poland was led by mortgage loans, with about 85,000 new loans issued during the period. Meanwhile, bank levies included in other operating results rose to 529 million euros from 284 million a year earlier, which the company attributed to levies in Poland and increases in Hungary and Romania.
The new targets also reflected higher estimates for several 2026 operating metrics. Erste now expects net interest income growth of more than 6% excluding the Polish bank, compared with about 5% in its previous guidance, and raised its forecast for fee and commission income growth to about 10% from a range of 7% to 9%. The expected improvement in revenue lowered its cost-to-income ratio target, excluding Erste Bank Polska, to below 46% from below 47%. The forecasts assume broadly stable interest rates and margins, the company said. The group cited political and economic developments, including the effects of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as regulatory changes and the competitive environment, as potential risks.
The update coincided with monitoring of asset quality and the cost of credit. The non-performing loan ratio was 2.3% at the end of September, compared with 2.4% in December 2025. The cost of risk was 21 basis points of average gross loans in the first nine months, against 19 basis points in the same period, which the group described as remaining moderate. Regarding ownership of the Polish bank, the subscription period for the voluntary tender offer began on November 3. The offer aims to raise Erste’s stake from 49% to more than 50%, subject to a cap of 75%. The offer adds a practical step to the inclusion of the Polish bank’s portfolio in the group’s results and stated targets.