Brent Settles at $95.84, Up 2 Cents, Amid Surplus Supply Concerns and Shipping Risks
Key Facts
Brent futures ended the Nov. 13 session at $95.84 a barrel, up 2 cents, or 0.02%, according to Reuters via Euronext. The limited move came as expectations of ample supply overlapped with concerns about disruptions to oil shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. In the same session, the December West Texas Intermediate contract fell 0.2% to $88.56 a barrel, according to Bloomberg via Rigzone. An analyst at Price Futures Group said the market’s main concern had shifted from supply shortages a few months ago to an oversupply. This view puts supply and inventory growth data against navigation risks that could prompt traders to reprice oil.
In a development related to shipping, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said a liquefied petroleum gas tanker was struck by a mine and exploded while passing through the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press said it could not independently verify the claim. The reliable open sources the agency reviewed did not provide evidence that two oil tankers were hit in the same incident. This comes amid a rise in attacks on commercial vessels in the region, but remains a claim attributed to the IRGC. Risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft counted 36 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman during October, the highest monthly total since the war began, according to Bloomberg via Rigzone.
On the supply side, the International Energy Agency said global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels a day. This followed an increase of 3 million barrels a day in September, showing that supply continued to grow over the two months. The agency expects the global oil market to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger increase in inventories in 2027. This outlook provides a backdrop of supply pressure on prices, as a Price Futures Group analyst said the surplus had become the market’s main concern. The surplus forecast alone does not mean shipping risks have disappeared; they remain present amid attacks on Gulf waterways.
Observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, the first increase since June, according to the International Energy Agency. Oil in transit by sea also increased by 86 million barrels, the agency said. These figures coincided with a month-on-month decline of 1.3 million barrels a day in global refinery processing to a seasonal low of 81.3 million barrels a day in October. The agency expects processing to recover to 84.7 million barrels a day in December. The decline in refinery activity and its expected recovery put developments in crude demand into the picture, alongside supply growth and changing inventories.
The International Energy Agency forecast that global oil demand would fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels a day, before rising by 2 million barrels a day in 2027. By contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that the average spot price of Brent was $124 a barrel in October, up $10 from September and the highest since July 2022 after adjusting for inflation. This monthly reading describes an earlier price context for the settlement at $95.84 on Nov. 13; it is not the price at that settlement. The International Energy Agency’s November oil market report was published on Nov. 13, 2026, and included forecasts for supply, demand and inventories in the periods ahead. The picture combines an expected near-term surplus, an anticipated drop in demand in 2026 and continuing risks to ship traffic in the region.