Yangshan Copper Premiums Top $200 a Ton as Chinese Inventories Fall
Key Facts
The average of the two Yangshan copper premiums for warrant and CIF bill-of-lading contracts topped $200 a ton on November 10, according to Shanghai Metals Market, which said the China EQ CIF copper premium also exceeded $100 a ton on the same date. The company said all three premiums reached record levels since data collection began. These levels put the cost of importing copper at the forefront of developments in the Chinese market, as manufacturers monitor their impact on purchases and production. The reported Yangshan premium of $265 a ton and the year-on-year increase cited in the account could not be verified because the original SMM page was unavailable. The reported theoretical profit loss for 8 mm cathode rods and buyers' resistance to higher processing fees also could not be verified.
Weekly transactions from November 9 to 12 indicate that Yangshan premiums remained elevated. The average warrant premium was $233 a ton, while the average bill-of-lading premium was $223 a ton, according to SMM's weekly review. The average China EQ CIF copper bill-of-lading premium was $124 a ton over the same period. These are weekly transaction averages, not a single reading for November 13. The figures provide a more detailed picture of premium levels by contract type and copper grade.
The rise in premiums coincided with a decline in Chinese bonded inventories. SMM said stocks in bonded areas fell by 4,900 tons week on week to 19,000 tons as of November 12, compared with the previous period ending November 5. In Shanghai alone, inventories dropped by 4,500 tons to 16,900 tons. The contraction in stocks available in bonded areas means the flow of deliverable supply through these channels remained on traders' radar. The data put the inventory decline in the context of elevated import premiums, without on their own establishing the cause of price movements.
SMM reported in a review published on October 30 that the operating rate at copper cathode rod plants was 77.65% in the week ended that day. The rate fell 0.95 percentage points week on week and came in below the 78.84% forecast. It nevertheless remained 17.22 percentage points above its level in the same period a year earlier, when it was 60.43%. This reading provides background on factory activity two weeks before the latest Yangshan premium review. Operating data do not directly measure producers' margins on November 13.
In China's domestic spot copper market, Shanghai's spot copper premium was 2,615 yuan a ton on November 6, according to the headline of an EL7 story, which described the level as a record. This is a local premium denominated in yuan, distinct from the dollar-denominated Yangshan premiums tied to copper imports. EL7 data showed HGUSD copper closed at 6.196 on November 12. The two readings provide context for market moves ahead of the weekend, but relate to different dates and series from the weekly averages of Yangshan premiums.
On trade, the Associated Press reported that China's trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion during January to October 2026, topping $1 trillion for the second consecutive year. The figure covers the first ten months of the year, not a surplus recorded on the day the report was published. It forms part of the broader backdrop to Chinese trade, while premium and inventory data remain specific to the copper market. China's National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release its monthly industrial production report above designated size on November 16 at 10:00 a.m., according to the published calendar. The bureau described the calendar dates as preliminary and subject to change.