U.S. Treasury Yields Rise to 5.10% as Rate Expectations Are Repriced
Key Facts
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.10% on November 12, up from 4.98% on November 10, according to Treasury Department data. The two-year yield also rose over the same period, to 4.86% from 4.73%. The move came after higher-than-expected inflation prompted traders to reassess the path of U.S. interest rates, according to KBC commentary published via ActionForex. This reading links the data to the prices investors demand to hold bonds, while yield levels also feed through to borrowing costs across the economy. Bond-market trading was halted on November 11 for Veterans Day, according to AP.
In the session after the inflation data were released, the two-year yield closed up 17.6 basis points, after gains during trading reached 20 basis points, according to KBC commentary on the November 10 session. Yields on maturities from 10 to 30 years added between 7.4 and 10.8 basis points in the same session. KBC described the move as a sharp bear flattening of the yield curve, indicating that short-term yields rose faster than longer-term yields. The bank said higher-than-expected consumer price index data drove the move. The report said Christopher Waller had raised the possibility before the data release of supporting a large rate increase in December if inflation did not improve in October.
Yield pressures extended to the housing market, where the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 7.11% in the week ended November 12, down from 7.18% the previous week, according to AP. Meanwhile, the average U.S. home sale price rose 0.4% year over year in October to $416,700. That was the highest October level in the data series dating back to 1999, the report said. Inventory at the end of the month amounted to 5.1 months of supply at the current sales pace, the most since November 2015. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said, "The market is difficult for buyers and sellers."
In market trading, the 10-year yield rose to 5.12% on November 12, compared with 4.98% late on November 10, according to AP. The report said the yield exceeded 5.30% in early October and remained above its level of 3.97% before the war with Iran. The yield had been trending lower for most of the period since early October, after reaching its highest level since 2002, before the latest rally. The dollar also rose against major currencies to its highest level in about 19 months on November 12 as yields climbed and the rate path was reassessed, according to Reuters. By contrast, AP said Treasury yields jumped on November 10 despite continued declines in oil prices.
The official calendar indicates that the November Consumer Price Index report will be released on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau said survey data for October 2025 were not collected because of a lapse in appropriations. As a result, it was unable to publish the annual change for some October 2026 indexes. The next inflation reading remains a scheduled upcoming date on the calendar after the wave of yield repricing that followed the October data. The bureau's published calendar did not specify a market forecast figure for the next report.