U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.10% as monthly inflation reaches 0.4%
Key Facts
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.10% on November 12, according to the Treasury Department’s table, up from 4.98% on November 10. The Associated Press said the yield was at the same level at midday Thursday. This came as the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, after a 0.6% increase in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month. Price and employment data point to mixed signals about economic pressures as markets track inflation and yields.
The rise in the yield came as headline monthly inflation eased from September, but consumer-price components continued to post increases. The shelter index rose 0.3% in October and accounted for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The food index also rose 0.5%, while the energy index increased 0.7%. The core index reading of 0.3% means prices excluding food and energy continued to rise during the month. The overall monthly increase had been 0.6% in September before slowing to 0.4% in October.
In the labor market, U.S. employers created 165,000 jobs in October, exceeding economists’ expectations of 65,000 jobs, according to the Associated Press. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in the same month. Average hourly earnings also rose 0.4% from September, the largest monthly increase since January. Employment and wage figures indicate continued demand in the labor market alongside a monthly rise in consumer prices. These data add to the economic picture a slower inflation reading than the previous month, alongside stronger-than-expected employment and wage growth.
On the producer-price front, the index rose 0.3% from September to October after jumping 1.4% in the previous month, according to the Associated Press. But the annual increase accelerated to 6.5% in October from 6.3% in September. The monthly change reflects a slowdown from the previous reading, while the annual rate remained above its level the month before. Price indicators were therefore mixed: monthly producer-price growth slowed, while the annual rate rose, and headline monthly consumer-price growth eased. This came alongside the jobs report, which showed more jobs added than economists had expected.
The 10-year yield had topped 5.30% earlier in November before reaching 5.10% at midday on November 12, according to the Associated Press. The yield remains above the 3.97% recorded before the U.S. war with Iran, the news agency said. The yield also matters for housing borrowing costs: lenders use it as a benchmark for pricing mortgages, and mortgage rates typically follow its path. In a speech dated November 10, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said inflation “has remained more persistent than I expected,” adding that she expects some of the current factors pushing prices higher to recede next year. That assessment puts continued price pressures at the heart of attention to the monetary-policy outlook.
Upcoming events to watch include a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on November 16, 2026, according to the Board’s calendar. Consumer Price Index data for November are scheduled for release on December 10, 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The next report will provide a new reading on monthly price changes after October data showed an overall increase of 0.4% and a core increase of 0.3%. Warsh’s speech is part of the Board’s November events schedule. Markets are tracking the yield and economic data amid the contrast between moderation in some monthly readings and strength in employment and wages.