USDA Forecast Cuts U.S. Soybean Stocks by 15 Million Bushels in 2026/27
Key Facts
November data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed a 15 million-bushel cut to its estimate of U.S. soybean stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season, to 300 million bushels. In the same report, the department raised its season-average farm price forecast by 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel, compared with its October report. The revisions offer the latest official picture of the U.S. crop balance, combining higher expected production and exports with lower ending stocks. The department also lowered its estimate of global stocks, pointing to tighter end-of-season balances on both sides of the ledger. The data provided do not include a verified closing price for the November 13 session or establish that contracts reached a two-week high during it.
On the production side, USDA raised its forecast for U.S. soybean production in the 2026/27 season by 12 million bushels from its previous estimate, to a report-record 4.6 billion bushels. It attributed most of the increase to improved yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska. This was partly offset by lower production in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. The production revision therefore reflects diverging state-level changes, with gains in the four states outweighing cuts elsewhere. The comparison shows that the expected increase in the crop did not prevent the department from lowering its estimate of U.S. ending stocks, after raising its export estimate for the season.
The report raised its forecast for U.S. soybean exports in the 2026/27 season by 25 million bushels, citing larger supplies and the pace of exports early in the season. The revision points to rising exports alongside higher expected production, while the U.S. stocks estimate fell to 300 million bushels after a 15 million-bushel cut. The department's Foreign Agricultural Service said private exporters reported on November 6 the sale of 136 thousand metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2026/27 season. The announcement adds a specific figure to the context of U.S. export expectations, but concerns a sale reported on that date. Available evidence does not establish that supply-chain concerns or logistical disruptions drove price moves in the November 13 session.
Globally, USDA lowered its forecast for soybean production in the 2026/27 season by 0.2 million tons to 442.5 million tons. The report attributed the revision mainly to lower expected production in Ukraine, South Africa, the European Union and Mexico. It also cut its estimate of global stocks at the end of the season by 0.8 million tons to 123.5 million tons, attributing the change mainly to lower stocks in the United States and Argentina. This global reduction contrasts with the expected increase in U.S. production, leaving the supply outlook shaped by differing changes across producing regions. The estimate of U.S. stocks also fell, alongside the higher export forecast, according to the November revision.
Available EL7 data for the contract with ticker ZSUSX show a close of 1,193.75 on November 6, followed by 1,230.75 on November 11, before ending November 12 at 1,219. The data provided do not include a November 13 close, so they offer no numerical basis to verify the session's move or describe it as the highest in two weeks. Against the backdrop of the seasonal outlook, USDA said the U.S. outlook for 2026/27 combines higher production and exports with lower ending stocks. The report also raised its season-average farm price forecast to $12.10 per bushel, up 10 cents from its October estimate. These figures remain full-season forecasts from the November report, while the latest close recorded in the data was on November 12.