Russian Oil Output Rises to 8.73 Million Barrels a Day in October
Key Facts
The International Energy Agency estimated that Russian oil supply rose to 8.73 million barrels a day in October 2026, from 8.52 million barrels a day in September, according to its November report. The estimate places the increase in Russian supply within a broader rise in global supply during the month. The report did not identify a reason for the Russian increase or link it to a diplomatic agreement or a change in sanctions. By contrast, the agency said ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continued to constrain diesel supplies to international markets. It added that these restrictions come on top of supply losses from the Middle East, highlighting the contrast between the rise in estimated Russian oil supply and continued pressure on diesel flows.
Globally, oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels a day, following an increase of 3 million barrels a day in September, the agency said. The International Energy Agency attributed the latest increase to higher Gulf exports, despite continued attacks on energy facilities and tankers. This puts the Russian increase in the context of a market that saw supply grow for two consecutive months, with Gulf exports playing a clear role in October’s movements. In the agency’s assessment, the rise in global supply was not the result of a single factor, but coincided with higher Gulf flows despite infrastructure and transport risks. This context matters in interpreting price movements, as the agency attributed October’s crude price decline to a recovery in Gulf exports.
The agency said observed global oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, their first increase since June. The rise came alongside an 86 million-barrel increase in oil at sea, to its highest level since January, amid strong crude exports from the Gulf. But onshore inventories continued to fall and remained at their lowest levels since at least 2016. The figures reflect diverging trends in oil at sea and onshore inventories: observed total inventories rose on the back of higher seaborne shipments, while onshore stocks continued to decline. The agency linked the increase in oil at sea to resilient Gulf exports, while noting that the decline in onshore inventories persisted despite the overall increase.
In crude markets, the International Energy Agency said dated North Sea crude fell 32% from a peak of 136 dollars a barrel in early October to 93 dollars a barrel at the time the November report was prepared. The agency attributed the decline to the ongoing recovery in Gulf exports, which eased tightness in the market. This identifies the factor the agency directly linked to the price drop, while the report makes no causal connection between increased Russian supply and the decline in crude. The price move came during a period that also saw global supply rise, but the agency described the recovery in Gulf exports as what eased market pressure. Thus, higher Russian output coincided with a drop in crude, while the agency attributed the price impact to improved Gulf flows.
The agency forecast that global oil demand would fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels a day, before rising by 2 million barrels a day in 2027. According to the supply and demand balances in the November report, the global oil market is heading for a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger surplus expected in 2027. The report thus sets this year’s expected slowdown in demand alongside an anticipated supply surplus, before forecasting a demand recovery the following year. Meanwhile, continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure keep diesel supplies to international markets under pressure, according to the agency. The outlook presented in the report focuses on the market balance in the fourth quarter of 2026 and a larger build in inventories in 2027.