Brent jumps 3.3% to $95.82 as Trump rejects Iran deal
Key Facts
Brent crude rose 3.3% to $95.82 a barrel on Thursday, Nov. 12, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States did not need a deal with Iran, a remark the Associated Press linked to the rise in oil prices. Trump said Washington controlled the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s money, adding, "We don’t need a deal with Iran." EL7 data show Brent closed at $95.82 a barrel that day, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $88.70. The move came amid mixed signals over the course of diplomacy and oil flows from the Middle East. Shares of Marathon Petroleum rose 2.5% and Exxon Mobil gained 1.8% during Thursday’s session, according to the Associated Press.
Trump’s remarks came after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was considering taking part in a new round of direct talks with a senior Iranian official. Trump had directed his vice president to focus on domestic issues, while Reuters reported that Vance led talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan in April. Those talks produced a memorandum of understanding in June that temporarily halted the war, before collapsing weeks later. That prior course of talks gives significance to the change in Vance’s role, without by itself establishing whether it would affect the prospects for resuming negotiations. Coverage did not provide a documented market reading that viewed the change as a signal of U.S. hardening or as a direct cause of the rise in prices.
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains central to supply risks. Reuters said the U.S. military was enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports while seeking to secure the passage of international vessels through the strait. In contrast, the Associated Press reported that oil shipments departing through Hormuz had recovered to levels close to those before the war, with international tankers relying on U.S. Navy escorts. The British military reported that at least two tankers had been struck by projectiles in recent days near Iran, according to the Associated Press. One was hit in the Strait of Hormuz northwest of Ras Al Khaimah, and its crew was evacuated safely. The picture combines a recovery in flows with continued security incidents, without one negating the other.
Prices had followed a volatile course during Thursday trading: Brent futures were down 0.4% at $92.42 a barrel at 04:34 Eastern time, according to Investing.com’s report citing Reuters. The report said investors were weighing mixed signals on diplomacy against improving oil flows from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia also told OPEC that its output rose 26% in October to 10.56 million barrels a day, according to Investing.com’s report citing Reuters. The East-West pipeline helped divert some shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz. The session and closing figures show that prices moved during the day, so the $92.42 reading refers to an early point in trading, while $95.82 represents Brent’s close on Nov. 12.
On supply estimates, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said average oil production shut-ins in the Middle East were 2.5 million barrels a day in October, after reaching a peak of 10.9 million barrels a day in May. The agency expects Brent to average about $100 a barrel in November and December as supply restrictions persist. It also expects global inventories to rise by 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027, pushing Brent below $90 in the second quarter of the year. On the effect of energy prices on consumers, Trump said in an interview broadcast on Nov. 9 that voters did not like higher gasoline prices, adding, "They didn’t like higher gasoline prices." The remarks put fuel prices among the political considerations cited by the president, as oil continued to fluctuate and supply forecasts diverged.