EL7.AI
Central BanksMedium•13 November 2026•
1 min read

Markets Price 88% Chance of December Fed Rate Hike Following Hawkish Waller Remarks

Key Facts

1Markets are pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the December meeting.
2Fed Governor Waller supported a December hike even if inflation improves, warning a 50 bps increase could be necessary if inflation surprises upside.
3Markets see an 85% probability of a Bank of England rate hike at the next meeting following stronger GDP data.

Markets are pricing in an 88% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for a hike even if inflation shows signs of improvement, warning that a larger 50-basis-point increase could be necessary if inflation surprises to the upside. According to investinglive.com, there is also an 85% probability of a Bank of England rate hike at its next meeting following strong GDP data.

The hawkish shift follows US consumer price index data released on November 10, 2026, which showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% forecast. Additionally, continuing jobless claims fell to 1,697k as of November 12, 2026, performing better than the expected 1,710k. Inflationary pressures were further evidenced by the Super Core CPI, which recorded a 0.44% monthly increase on November 10, 2026.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech on November 16, 2026, which may provide further clarity on the monetary policy outlook. On the same day, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to be released, with a forecast of 10 compared to the previous reading of 25.5.