EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•13 November 2026•
4 min read

Iraq’s Oil Output Rises to 4.6 Million Barrels a Day, Exceeding OPEC+ Target

Key Facts

1The International Energy Agency estimated Iraq’s production at 4.6 million barrels a day in October, compared with 4.06 million in September.
2Iraq’s output exceeded the implied target of 4.43 million barrels a day by about 170,000 in October.
3Observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, equivalent to 1.7 million barrels a day.
4Dated North Sea crude fell 32% from $136 to $93 a barrel.
5OPEC set November 29, 2026, as the date of the next meeting of the seven participating countries.

The International Energy Agency estimated Iraq’s oil production at 4.6 million barrels a day in October 2026, up 540,000 barrels a day from September, when it stood at 4.06 million. The agency’s table showed October output exceeded Iraq’s implied target by about 170,000 barrels a day. The estimate appears in the Oil Market Report issued on November 13, as the agency recorded increases in global supply and inventories. The figures put Iraqi output at the center of debate over Baghdad’s compliance with OPEC+ targets and its push for a larger share in 2027. The report did not describe October’s level as the highest since 2019.

The agency’s table puts Iraq’s implied target for October at 4.43 million barrels a day, against estimated production of 4.6 million. It also lists Iraq’s sustainable production capacity at 4.87 million barrels a day. That means the gap between output and the target was about 170,000 barrels a day, while production remained below estimated sustainable capacity. The comparison distinguishes the actual production level recorded by the agency from the target used in the table. Iraq’s Oil Ministry, meanwhile, said Baghdad is seeking to raise its 2027 quota above 4.431 million barrels a day, while affirming its commitment to the agreed ceiling.

Iraqi exports offer another indication of the return of supplies. Iraq’s oil exports averaged about 3.5 million barrels a day in October, including about 400,000 barrels a day through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, according to Iraqi officials cited by Reuters. The export figure differs from the production estimate because it measures the volume of oil shipped, not what was produced during the month. In the broader market, the International Energy Agency said global supply rose by 3 million barrels a day in September, then increased by 2.3 million to 105.4 million barrels a day in October. The agency attributed October’s increase to higher Gulf exports, a trend coinciding with the recovery in Iraqi exports.

The widening supply coincided with a 52 million barrel increase in observed oil inventories, or 1.7 million barrels a day, in October, according to the agency. It was the first increase since June, as Gulf exports recovered faster than global oil demand grew. In another market estimate, the agency forecast global demand would fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million a day, before rising by 2 million barrels a day in 2027. These estimates put the inventory increase in the context of returning supply against expected weakness in demand this year. The agency also recorded a month-on-month decline of 1.3 million barrels a day in global refinery throughput to 81.3 million in October, a seasonal low.

On prices, the International Energy Agency said dated North Sea crude fell 32% from a peak of $136 a barrel in early October to $93 at the time the November report was prepared. The agency linked the decline to the recovery in Gulf exports and an easing in market tightness. In the agency’s reading, the return of supplies is therefore tied to a shift in the market balance and rising inventories, rather than an increase in output by major producers alone. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that forced crude production shutdowns in the Middle East fell to 2.5 million barrels a day in October, after peaking at 10.9 million in May. The decline reflects the easing of part of the disruption that had constrained supplies in the region.

The setting of Iraq’s next quota remains tied to the course of OPEC+ decisions. On November 1, the seven countries participating in the agreement kept September’s production requirements in place for December and set November 29 as the date of their next meeting. This follows Baghdad’s announcement that it is seeking a higher quota for 2027 than the current level of 4.431 million barrels a day. October’s figures, including estimated production exceeding the implied target, put compliance alongside Iraq’s call for a larger share. The seven countries are scheduled to meet on November 29, according to an OPEC statement.