CommoditiesMedium•13 November 2026•
1 min read
IEA Forecasts Global Oil Surplus of 1.7 Million BPD in Q4 2026
Key Facts
1The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed consumption by 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
2The agency raised its Q4 supply estimate by 3.3 million bpd, noting global output reached 105.4 million bpd in October.
The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to exceed consumption by 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The Financial Express reported that the agency raised its Q4 supply estimate by 3.3 million bpd, noting that global output reached 105.4 million bpd in October.
The projected surplus is attributed to a recovery in crude shipments and increased production across various regions. This supply growth coincides with a 32% drop in oil prices since October, as the market adjusts to the widening gap between global production and consumption levels.