CommoditiesMedium•13 November 2026•
1 min read
IEA Forecasts Global Oil Surplus in Q4 2026 as Supply Rebounds
Key Facts
1The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed consumption during the fourth quarter of 2026.
2Oil prices have plunged 32% from their October peak, with North Sea Dated crude dropping from $136 to approximately $93 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to exceed consumption during the fourth quarter of 2026. Coinpaper reported that oil prices have plunged 32% from their October peak, with North Sea Dated crude dropping from $136 to approximately $93 per barrel.
The shift toward a surplus is driven by rebounding Middle East supplies and signs that President Donald Trump may avoid further military action, easing the geopolitical risk premium. According to the IEA's November report, global production increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million, while observed oil stocks grew by 52 million barrels during the same period.