Corteva Cuts 2026 Profit Forecast to 76–80 Cents; Nebius Targets $13 Billion in 2027

Key Facts

Corteva cut its 2026 adjusted operating earnings per share forecast to 76–80 cents, compared with the analyst consensus estimate of $1.63, after the deterioration in Brazil’s market exceeded its expectations. In its third-quarter results, the company’s net sales fell 9% year over year to $1.591 billion, while adjusted EBITDA declined 17% to $222 million. The company said weakness in Brazil, farmers’ liquidity constraints, higher financing costs, purchases made as needed and pricing pressure weighed on performance. By contrast, it said demand for its new differentiated products remained strong and performance outside Latin America was resilient. The forecast cut puts Brazil’s agricultural market at the forefront of Corteva’s operational risks for the rest of the year.

In Latin America, Corteva’s organic sales fell 31% in the third quarter, with volumes down 24% and prices down 7%. The company attributed the drop in volumes to higher inventories in distribution channels and delayed purchases amid liquidity constraints and high interest rates. A Reuters report estimated that elevated inventories would weigh on 2026 core earnings by $100 million. Corteva said it does not expect a meaningful near-term improvement in buying behavior in Brazil, suggesting inventory pressure and deferred demand could persist in the near term. The report quoted the chief executive as saying the company had not anticipated “the magnitude or the speed of the deterioration” in Brazil, adding that market conditions deteriorated sharply in the final weeks of the third quarter and the decline continued afterward.

The forecast cut was reflected in Corteva shares on Thursday, November 12, which fell 20.3% to $9.68 during trading, their lowest level in more than a year, according to Reuters. EL7 data showed the stock closed that day at $9.19. The closing price provides context for the share move in the session after the company announced its earnings forecast cut. The announcement centered on the downturn in Brazil, where lower volumes and prices coincided with delayed purchases and channel inventories. These factors highlight the sensitivity of Corteva’s results to farmers’ financing conditions and demand trends in the Brazilian market.

Nebius, by contrast, reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, compared with $146.1 million a year earlier, an annual increase of 571%. Revenue exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of $907.5 million, according to Reuters. Despite the strong growth, the company said 2026 revenue would come in at the low end of its $3.0–3.4 billion range, with an expected adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%. It said some third-party capacity expected to come online this year had been deferred to the first half of 2027, while the related contracts remained in place. Its chief executive said the capacity had not been canceled, but its operational start had shifted to next year.

Nebius expects revenue of between $12 billion and $13 billion in 2027, about four times its 2026 revenue, and expects to reach pre-tax breakeven in the fourth quarter of that year. The growth target comes with a sharp increase in spending: the company raised its 2026 spending forecast to about $27 billion, from a previous range of $20 billion to $25 billion, and expects to spend between $40 billion and $45 billion in 2027. Nebius said advance payments and asset financing backed by contracts with investment-grade customers would cover 75%–85% of expected capital spending next year. A large part of the expansion funding therefore rests on advance payments and existing contracts, alongside efforts to bring deferred capacity online. The chief financial officer also said customers were already seeking capacity for 2028 and that prices for 2027 capacity were rising, adding that the company saw no risk to selling its planned capacity.

The delayed capacity rollout weighed on Nebius shares despite quarterly revenue beating analyst estimates. The stock fell 16% on Thursday, November 12, amid a broader decline in AI shares, according to Reuters, after the company cut its 2026 revenue forecast because of delays in adding third-party capacity. EL7 data showed the stock closed at $128.64 that day. The company’s results combined rapid third-quarter revenue growth with the deferral of some capacity and a cut to its annual revenue forecast to the low end of its range. At the same time, Nebius set its 2027 target and the spending required to reach it within a plan that expects customer advance payments and asset financing to fund most of its capital spending.