Trump Threatens to Resume Strikes on Iran as Tanker Attacks Continue and G7 Effort Stalls
Key Facts
US President Donald Trump kept the military option on the table in confronting Iran, saying he would not hesitate to resume strikes if things did not go as they should, in an interview with Hugh Hewitt on November 12. Trump said in the interview: "If nothing works, I won't hesitate." The threat came as the administration said Qatari mediation was making progress, putting military escalation and negotiations on parallel tracks. Earlier in the week, Trump had said a broad resumption of bombing appeared unlikely. But he tied another threat to the killing of a senior US official, saying Iran "would not be around very long" if it killed a prominent US official.
In a November 12 post, Trump again questioned the need for an agreement with Tehran, saying the United States did not need a deal with it. He added that Washington had Iran's money and the Strait of Hormuz, referring to his claim that it had "hundreds of billions of dollars" and the strait. The post followed remarks about progress in Qatari mediation, adding a tougher message to the stated US position. It did not announce a new agreement or set a date for another round of talks. Safe passage remains one of the issues linking the military confrontation to negotiations.
Although oil shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to levels near those before the war, international tankers still rely on US Navy escorts to transit the waterway. British maritime authorities said projectiles struck at least two tankers in disputed waters near Iran in recent days, according to the Associated Press on November 12. The crew of one tanker was evacuated safely, and no injuries were reported. Continued reliance on escorts shows that the return of shipping has not ended security risks in the strait. Attacks on vessels also keep the security of oil supplies directly in the diplomatic calculations.
In Paris, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he pressed his G7 counterparts to help protect ships from Iranian attacks but made no progress on the effort. The stalled initiative means Washington has not announced a broader arrangement to escort ships, despite seeking help from its allies. Meanwhile, Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the United States had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to facilitate direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The White House did not respond directly to a question about the request. The remarks put Moscow among the potential diplomatic efforts, alongside Qatari mediation.
Qatari mediation stems from a two-day confidence-building proposal that Iran was considering to address disputes with the United States over its nuclear program, according to Middle Eastern government officials cited by the Associated Press. The proposal points to an effort to arrange confidence-building steps before addressing broader disputes. The US secretary of state said on November 8 that negotiations had made limited progress and that he saw no imminent breakthrough. On October 31, Reuters cited a source familiar with the talks as saying Qatar had put forward a different, seven-day plan involving reciprocal daily steps, which an Iranian official considered unsatisfactory. The successive proposals show that a negotiating formula is still being sought, without indicating that the sides have agreed to its terms.
The Iran issue weighed on the US market session on November 12, as major indexes fell and oil rose. The Russell 2000 fell 1.7%, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq each dropped 0.4%. The Associated Press linked the rise in oil prices to Trump's rejection of a deal with Iran. Brent crude settled at $95.82 a barrel, up $3.06, or 3.3%, in the session, according to Reuters. Even so, both crude benchmarks remained down about 2.5% for the week through that date.
Against the backdrop of political pressure linked to the war, US Vice President JD Vance said losing the Senate for the next six years would remain a political cost for those backing its continuation. His remark came amid debate over the war's impact on Republicans' political fortunes. Vance said: "If you want to say it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years, do that." On a separate diplomatic track, Trump was scheduled to meet Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in a closed-door meeting at the White House on November 9. The available information does not confirm the outcome of that meeting or announce a new date for negotiations.