U.S. Oil Report Due Nov. 12 Ahead of Production Forecast of 14.3 Million Barrels a Day
Key Facts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly supply report on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time, covering the week ended Nov. 6, according to its official schedule. The release falls outside the usual publication schedule, making confirmation of that week's figures a focus for the oil market during the session. However, the weekly report published before the release does not include a production reading for the week ended Nov. 6. The latest figure available on the agency's public page is 14.003 million barrels a day for the week ended Oct. 30. The published data therefore do not provide a confirmed reading that would establish the production level or support describing it as a record in the Nov. 12 release.
EIA data show domestic production of 14.003 million barrels a day for the week ended Oct. 30, compared with 13.992 million for the week ended Oct. 23. That figure places the earlier week's reading in the context of production data available ahead of the new report, but does not establish the direction of production in the week ended Nov. 6. The time span matters when reading weekly figures, since each reading applies to a specific period and should not be attributed to another week. The report's Nov. 12 publication date does not change the period it covers: the week ended Nov. 6. The public report did not include a documented figure for that week to allow a direct comparison with the previous week.
The EIA says weekly production estimates may be recalibrated monthly when it publishes its short-term outlook if it finds a significant difference between them and trends in monthly production data and other current data sources. The agency said recalibration may take place during the week it releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook. This means the weekly production reading is considered alongside monthly estimates and the other sources the agency uses. The review matters when comparing successive figures, because a weekly estimate may be adjusted if a substantial difference in trends emerges. The reading for the week of Nov. 6 remains subject to what the agency reports in the release scheduled for that day.
In the refined-products market, the front-month gasoline futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $2.6075 a gallon on Nov. 11, compared with a settlement of $2.6088 on Nov. 10, according to EL7 data. The comparison shows a modest decline between the two settlements ahead of the report and provides a reference point for the contract's movement before the U.S. supply data are released. These are futures settlements, not prices at the fuel pump. The move alone does not establish a market response to an inventory or production reading that has not been confirmed in the available evidence. The report scheduled for Nov. 12 is the next event in the weekly data calendar.
Looking at the annual outlook, the EIA expects U.S. crude production to rise to 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027, up 3% from the projected annual record of 13.9 million in 2026. The agency's November short-term outlook thus puts expected production for the following year above its estimate for 2026. On inventories, the agency said stocks stood at 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-month level since 2014. It linked the level to a 14.1 million-barrel draw in October, driven by lower imports and higher exports. It expects inventories to remain below the five-year average through mid-2027.
The EIA said the price spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate encouraged exports and reduced imports, alongside higher refinery inputs, factors it cited in explaining the decline in commercial inventories at the end of October. U.S. refinery crude inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels a day in October, and the agency expected a similar level in November. For 2027, the agency expects inventories to rise from 416 million barrels at the end of January to 444 million at the end of December, as net imports increase and the Brent-WTI price spread is expected to narrow. The outlook links inventory changes to trade flows and refinery inputs, as well as production. The report for the week ended Nov. 6 is scheduled for release on Thursday, Nov. 12, at 12 p.m. Eastern time.