UK GDP Grows 0.2% in September as All Three Sectors Expand

Key Facts

UK real gross domestic product grew 0.2% in September 2026, with services, production and construction all recording monthly increases, according to an Office for National Statistics estimate published on 12 November. Growth resumed after no increase in August, while output had risen 0.4% in July. Services grew 0.2% in September, production rose 0.3% and construction output increased 0.8%. This reading provides a monthly picture of activity, while third-quarter data showed broader growth of 0.7% compared with the second quarter. GDP growth in the comparison between consecutive three-month periods thus extended to nine consecutive rolling quarters.

GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to September compared with the three months to June, according to the Office for National Statistics estimate. The 1.9% figure measures growth compared with the third quarter of the previous year, not an annual growth rate for September; output was 1.9% higher than in the same period a year earlier. Third-quarter growth followed an increase of 0.5% in the second quarter. On a monthly basis, GDP rose 0.2% in September, a different comparison from growth over the whole quarter. Distinguishing between the periods shows quarterly growth accelerating from the previous quarter, alongside improved activity in the final month of the quarter.

Services were the biggest driver of third-quarter growth, with activity rising 0.9%, according to Office for National Statistics data. Production increased 0.1% over the quarter, while construction contracted 0.7%, contrasting with the increases recorded across all three sectors in September alone. Within services, administrative and support service activities rose 4.1%, while information and communication activity increased 2.1%. By contrast, both education and accommodation and food service activities fell 0.5%. The figures show that services growth over the quarter was uneven, despite its leading contribution to economic growth during the period.

Real GDP per head rose 0.7% in the third quarter and was 1.7% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier, the office said. In construction, September's 0.8% increase reversed four consecutive monthly declines. The largest contribution to the rise came from new infrastructure work, which grew 3.3% during the month. This movement highlights the difference between construction's monthly trajectory and its performance over the quarter as a whole, when the sector contracted 0.7%. Production growth of 0.3% in September also followed a modest quarterly increase of 0.1% in the third quarter.

The data came alongside the Bank of England's decision, published on 5 November, to raise its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4%, after the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 to 1. The bank said consumer price inflation was 3.5% in September and that it expected inflation to rise to about 5% by the middle of next year. In its November report, the bank's staff forecast slower growth in coming quarters and estimated quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of about 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank's business survey indicators also pointed to growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, compared with the official estimate of 0.7%. The Office for Budget Responsibility cut its forecast for average real GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 to 1.1% in its October forecast, from 1.3% in its March forecast.

Markets are awaiting the release of October consumer price inflation data on 18 November 2026 at 07:00 UK time, according to the Office for National Statistics calendar. The calendar entry did not include an estimate for the inflation rate. The release follows annual inflation of 3.5% in September, according to the Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to hold its next meeting on 17 December 2026. October's data will be the latest inflation reading before that meeting, while the bank's forecast that inflation will rise to about 5% by the middle of 2027 remains part of the backdrop to its upcoming decisions.