Trump Rules Out Deal with Iran as Oil Jumps and Stocks Fall Amid Renewed Doubts
Key Facts
U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday he saw no need for a deal with Iran, a message that revived market doubts about the course of the war and nuclear negotiations. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days are long gone." Axios reported that oil prices jumped and stocks fell after the post. The outlet described the market before the message as acting as if the war with Iran were nearly over. Axios linked the move to renewed uncertainty, without specifying stock indexes or the extent of their declines in its report.
Thursday's message followed mixed moves in the oil market in recent days, amid changing assessments of escalation and supply risks. On Nov. 10, prices fell to a two-month low after U.S. officials played down the need for further military action against Iran, according to a Reuters report published by Investing.com. The following day, oil rose about 2% after an Iranian security official said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, Reuters reported via Kitco. That rise lifted prices from the two-month low recorded in the previous session. In its snapshot on Thursday morning, the Associated Press said U.S. crude and Brent were each up 0.8%, with Brent trading in a range of $72 to $120 a barrel since the war pushed prices higher.
The post adds to a political trajectory that has not settled on a single position on the need for a settlement. On Nov. 9, Trump said Iran was "basically finished" militarily and that the United States was "keeping the status quo," while affirming that the naval blockade remained in place, according to the Associated Press. The agency says Iran's stated demands before entering nuclear talks include ending the U.S. blockade of ports, lifting sanctions and releasing Iranian assets. Its report also said U.S. forces remained near Iran and were maintaining a naval blockade aimed at stopping Iranian oil from reaching the global market. That puts the dispute over the blockade among the issues intersecting with prospects for resuming negotiations, while Thursday's post made no announcement of a deal or a date for new talks.
Vice President JD Vance recently took part in an effort to reach a new ceasefire with Iran and resume nuclear talks, according to Axios. But on Thursday Trump asked him to direct his "full and undivided attention" to what he described as corruption in Democratic-run cities and states, naming Minnesota, California and Illinois. The Axios report brings together that domestic assignment and Trump's message on a deal with Iran, at a time when Vance had been involved in ceasefire and negotiation efforts. The report does not announce that those efforts have been canceled or set a date for their resumption. The message also provided no details on new negotiating terms or next U.S. steps.
In the market-data context, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum supply report was scheduled for release Thursday, Nov. 12, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, after being delayed because of the Veterans Day holiday. The report's scheduled release came during a session in which U.S. crude and Brent rose in the morning, according to the Associated Press, and after oil climbed about 2% the previous day, according to Reuters via Kitco. These readings provide a sequence of price moves over the three days, from the Nov. 10 decline to the Nov. 11 rise and then Thursday morning's gains. Axios described the move after Trump's post as an increase in oil and a decline in stocks, without specifying percentages or levels. The available evidence did not report the supply report's results after its scheduled release time.
The message also followed earlier indications that the diplomatic track was not close to a breakthrough. On Nov. 8, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said indirect talks with Iran had made little progress and were not on the verge of a negotiating breakthrough, according to the Associated Press. After that, Axios reported Vance's involvement in pushing for a new ceasefire and the resumption of nuclear talks, before Trump assigned him to focus on domestic issues on Thursday. In the two days before the message, oil moved between a two-month low and a rise of about 2% as statements and concerns related to Iran diverged. The petroleum supply report's scheduled release remains the next dated event in the available evidence, which contains no information on the report's results or any subsequent negotiating development.