Preliminary Estimate Slows Sweden’s Inflation in October as Riksbank Tightens Monetary Policy

Key Facts

Preliminary figures from Statistics Sweden showed the inflation rate slowing in October, according to statistician Mikael Nordin in a statement published before the detailed final figures due on 12 November 2026. “The preliminary figures show the inflation rate slowing in October,” Nordin said. That followed a rise in annual inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, to 1.1% in September from 0.3% in August. Statistician Sophie Öhman attributed September’s increase to higher electricity and fuel prices. The figures provide context for inflation’s movement between the two months, while October’s reading remained preliminary when the agency announced it.

The agency distinguishes between the CPI and the CPIF index, which the Riksbank uses in its monetary policy. The CPI is Sweden’s most commonly used measure of inflation, while the CPIF holds households’ mortgage interest rates constant. The central bank targets annual inflation of 2% under the CPIF. The CPI reading alone therefore does not represent the measure that determines the monetary policy target, and the preliminary inflation estimate does not settle the interest rate outlook. The comparison between the two indexes is important for assessing the bank’s view of prices.

The Riksbank raised its interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2% on 4 November and said a further increase next year was likely if its forecasts remained on track. The decision puts monetary policy on a tightening path despite the slowdown in inflation shown by October’s preliminary figures. The bank said a combination of stronger economic activity, cost increases stemming from supply disruptions and a weaker krona over the year was expected to push core inflation and CPIF inflation above 2% next year. The Riksbank said these factors “are expected to contribute to CPIF inflation and core inflation rising above 2% next year.”

The bank’s assessment is not based on a single month’s price index reading; it linked its outlook to supply costs, economic activity and the exchange rate. October’s figure from the agency, meanwhile, remains preliminary until the detailed final data are published. Those data were scheduled for release on 12 November 2026, the same date listed in the agency’s official calendar for October’s consumer price index. The agency said more detailed information and final figures would be available that day. The next Riksbank monetary policy report is awaited as part of the policy assessment.

The Riksbank is scheduled to publish its next monetary policy report, including its forecasts, on 16 December 2026. The report will follow the rate increase and the scheduled release of October’s final data. The bank has said a further increase next year is likely if its forecasts remain on track, while it expects core inflation and CPIF to exceed 2% next year. The Riksbank’s annual target remains 2% under the CPIF. The next report is the bank’s announced next opportunity to present its forecasts.