Six Russian Diesel Cargoes Reported Crossing Atlantic Amid Uncertainty Over U.S. Destinations

Key Facts

At least six Russian diesel cargoes announced voyages across the Atlantic, while two appeared to have changed course after heading for the U.S. Atlantic coast, according to an Associated Press report published on November 5. The report said a third tanker was still in the North Atlantic bound for the United States, but had changed its registered destination from New York to "for orders," leaving its discharge port open. The tanker movements followed a U.S. license permitting transactions related to the sale, delivery, discharge and import of Russian diesel. The U.S. Treasury Department, through the Office of Foreign Assets Control, issued Russia-related General License No. 135 on October 9. The department said in its notice that it was issuing the Russia-related license, but the notice alone did not establish where the cargoes would go or discharge.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on October 9 a deal to supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and then 1 million tons "immediately thereafter," the Associated Press reported. The announced figures outlined a sequence of supplies, but do not prove that the volumes reached the United States or that the delivery schedule was met. On November 5, the agency said two cargoes appeared to have changed course and another tanker had left its discharge destination unspecified. The Associated Press reported in a separate article published on November 5 that no Russian cargo had reached the United States since the deal was struck. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy also warned port and terminal operators in the state against receiving the fuel, saying in a letter dated Monday that "any attempt to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will face severe penalties." The U.S. administration said the license was legal, while no court had resolved the dispute, according to the report.

The export arrangements reflect domestic pressure on Russia's fuel market. The Associated Press said Moscow had banned diesel exports since July after struggling to meet domestic demand amid repeated Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries. In contrast, a Reuters report said Russia continued supplying diesel to countries, mostly in Central Asia, under intergovernmental agreements despite its self-imposed ban. Russian exports to Central Asia totaled 427,000 metric tons in the month before Reuters' report, published on October 12. These flows show that continued supply to some destinations does not mean restrictions on all exports have been lifted, or that the announced Atlantic-bound cargoes are headed to the United States. The Associated Press said renewed attacks on refineries make it harder to address Russia's domestic fuel shortage, pressures that coincided with Moscow's search for export markets.

Russian diesel production stood at about 160,000 tons per day in the first half of October, down from 175,000 tons per day in September, before beginning to recover toward 180,000 tons per day after new export quotas took effect, according to industry sources cited by Reuters. Informed sources told the agency that permitted quotas would increase fourfold in November from October levels, reaching 2 million metric tons, or about 0.5 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, Reuters reported that the export ban would remain in place until the end of the year, citing the same sources. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak forecast diesel exports of 3.0 to 3.5 million metric tons per month by year-end, compared with more than 3 million metric tons per month before the 2024-2025 wave of refinery attacks. These figures remain forecasts and statements about potential levels, not a tally of realized exports in November.

In the futures market, the New York Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel contract settled at $4.2113 per gallon on November 11, according to EL7 data. This figure represents a futures contract settlement, not the price paid by consumers for fuel. The International Energy Agency said easing Russian restrictions would not materially change the global gasoil market balance because the existing constraints stem from a shortage of Russian refinery operating capacity. The agency forecast that the global diesel and gasoil market would return to surplus in the first quarter of 2027 as refinery output rises, but said the market would remain tight during 2027 because of the accumulated shortfall in 2026 and the balance's dependence on a recovery in product supplies from the Middle East. The reported tanker movements, refinery output and export quotas remain factors shaping supply over the coming months.